EUR/JPY – 8H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-09-18 16:00 UTC 16 hours ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 25 % (3.35) ▼ Bearish 75 % (10.19)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 5.1 % vs 17.1 % average · stopped out 9.4 % vs 9.1 % (Forex, 117 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	1.97
▼	ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.50
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.43
▼	STOCHRSI KD Cross Down	indicator	1.39
▲	MAMA Cross Up	indicator	1.38
▼	Last Engulfing Bottom	candlestick	1.24
▼	Last Engulfing Top	candlestick	1.24
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.19
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.16
▼	SMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	1.02
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	0.99
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.86

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense cluster of bearish indicators on the 8H chart signals a strong sell opportunity with 75% probability.
The daily trend is bearish, aligning with the 8H sell signal, but the 12H trend is very strongly bullish, creating a conflict.
Watch the nearest support/resistance level at 185.98100; a break below could confirm the bearish move, while a hold above might lead to a bounce.
Lower timeframes are still bullish but weakening, suggesting the bearish momentum may be building.

The EUR/JPY 8H signal has fired a dense cluster of bearish indicators, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHRSI KD Cross Down, WILLR OB Exit, MAMA Cross Up, SMA 50 Retreat Down, ER Level Cross Down, KDJ Cross Down, and ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat, alongside four additional signals. This confluence suggests a strong momentum shift to the downside on the 8H timeframe, with a high probability (75%) and strong strength. The bearish signal is supported by the daily timeframe, which shows a solid bearish trend, while intraday timeframes (15m to 8H) are still bullish but with weakening trend scores as the timeframe increases. The 12H remains very strongly bullish, indicating a potential conflict, but the daily bearishness aligns with the 8H sell signal.

Key levels to monitor are the nearest resistance at 185.98100, which should hold to confirm the bearish bias, and the nearest support at 185.98100 (note: the support level appears to be the same as resistance, which is unusual; traders should watch for a break below this level to confirm downside continuation). The signal suggests that the current bullish momentum on lower timeframes may be fading, and a bearish reversal could be underway. However, the mixed higher timeframe trend (12H very strong bullish) warrants caution, as a bullish resumption could invalidate the signal.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish indicators firing simultaneously (BOP, STOCHRSI, WILLR, MAMA, SMA 50, ER, KDJ, ACCBANDS) provide strong confluence.
▼ The daily timeframe shows a solid bearish trend, supporting the 8H sell signal.
▼ The signal strength is 'strong' with a high probability (75%), increasing confidence.
▼ The bearish signal occurs after an overbought condition (WILLR OB Exit), suggesting a potential reversal.

Risk Factors

▲ The 12H timeframe is very strongly bullish, which could override the 8H bearish signal if bullish momentum persists.
▲ Lower timeframes (15m to 4H) are still bullish, indicating that the bearish move may not be fully confirmed yet.
▲ The nearest support and resistance are at the same level (185.98100), which may act as a strong pivot; a break above this level could invalidate the bearish signal.
▲ If the price fails to break below the support, the signal could be a false breakout, leading to a bounce higher.