USD/JPY – 2H – BUY

BUY 9× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-18 08:00 UTC 8 days ago

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (18 Sep 2026, 08:00 UTC, updated 9× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	RSI OB Exit	indicator	2.34
▲	KST Signal Cross Up	indicator	2.34
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.15
▲	ADXR Trend Strong	indicator	2.05
▲	CMO OB Exit	indicator	2.05
▲	KDJ OB Exit	indicator	2.04
▲	ULTOSC OB Exit	indicator	1.93
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.48
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▼	ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.19
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.16
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.13
▼	RSX OB Entry	indicator	1.02
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	0.90
▼	STC OB Entry	indicator	0.68

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Momentum oscillators exiting overbought levels signal a pullback within a bullish 2H trend.
Lower timeframes (15m, 30m) show solid bullish trends, supporting the buy signal.
Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are bearish, creating a conflicting backdrop.
Watch the 153.236 support and 160.389 resistance for direction.

The 2H USD/JPY signal is BUY with moderate strength (69% probability), triggered by a cluster of momentum oscillators (RSI, CMO, STOCHF, ULTOSC, WILLR) exiting overbought conditions alongside ADXR confirming a strong trend. The BOP zero cross down and ER level cross down suggest a short-term pullback within an ongoing bullish move, which the candlestick signals support. On the 2H chart, the trend is bullish but still forming (2/5), aligning with the 1H, 4H, 8H timeframes, while the 15m and 30m show a solid bullish trend (3/5). This suggests the bullish momentum is intact on lower timeframes, but the higher timeframes (12H and 1D) are bearish, with the daily trend very strong (4/5). The key resistance is at 160.389, and support is at 153.236. The bullish case relies on the pullback finding support and resuming the uptrend, with a break above resistance confirming further upside. However, the bearish higher timeframes pose a significant risk, and a close below the nearest support would invalidate the bullish signal.

Catalysts

▲ ADXR confirms a strong trend on the 2H timeframe, supporting the bullish bias.
▲ Multiple oscillators (RSI, CMO, STOCHF, ULTOSC, WILLR) exiting overbought levels suggest a healthy pullback, not a reversal.
▲ Bullish alignment across 15m to 8H timeframes (trend forming or solid) reinforces the buy signal.
▲ Candlestick signals add confluence to the indicator-based signals.

Risk Factors

▼ The 12H and 1D timeframes are bearish, with the daily trend very strong, which could overwhelm the lower-timeframe bullish move.
▼ A break below the nearest support at 153.236 would invalidate the bullish signal.
▼ The pullback could deepen if momentum continues to fade, as indicated by the BOP zero cross down and ER level cross down.
▼ Resistance at 160.389 is nearby and could cap upside if the trend fails to break through.