USD/JPY – 4H – BUY

BUY 29× UPDATED

2026-09-18 12:00 UTC 7 days ago

61.0 % – zur Vorkerze

VERY STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 100 % (25.32) ▼ Bearish 0 % (0.00)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

47.0% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 100.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 7 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC, updated 29× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	CMO OB Exit	indicator	2.61
▲	KDJ OB Exit	indicator	2.36
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.45
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.44
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.15
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	0.79

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

12H

UPSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Momentum oscillators are all signaling a pullback from overbought levels on the 4H chart.
The medium-term trend (2H, 12H) is still bullish, but the daily trend is strongly bearish.
Watch the 4H support at 153.236; a break below could accelerate the decline.
Resistance at 160.389 is the key upside barrier; a reclaim would negate the bearish momentum signal.

The signal stack on USD/JPY's 4H chart is dominated by momentum oscillators rolling over from overbought conditions: BOP Zero Cross Down, CMO OB Exit, STOCHF KD Cross Down, HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down, ER Level Cross Down, and KDJ OB Exit. Collectively, these indicate that bullish momentum is waning at the 4H timeframe, and a pullback or consolidation is likely. However, the overall trend picture is mixed: the 2H and 12H timeframes show solid bullish trends (3/5), while the 15m through 1H are bearish and forming, and the 1D is very strongly bearish (4/5). This suggests the immediate momentum shift is counter to the medium-term bullish structure, but aligns with the longer-term bearish bias.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 160.389 and support at 153.236. A break below the 4H support would confirm the bearish momentum and likely open the path toward the daily downtrend. Conversely, if the bullish trend on the 2H and 12H holds and price bounces off support, the overbought conditions may resolve with a sideways consolidation rather than a reversal. Traders should monitor the 4H close relative to these levels and the strength of the trend scores for confirmation.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple independent momentum indicators (BOP, CMO, STOCHF, HT PHASOR, ER, KDJ) are all exiting overbought conditions, increasing the reliability of the pullback signal.
▲ The 1D timeframe shows a very strong bearish trend (4/5), aligning with the bearish momentum shift.
▲ The 15m to 1H timeframes are already bearish, suggesting the pullback is underway.
▲ Nearest support at 153.236 provides a clear downside target and confluence with the daily downtrend.

Risk Factors

▼ The 2H and 12H timeframes are still solidly bullish (3/5), which could limit the downside and lead to a shallow pullback.
▼ The signal strength is weak (55% probability), so the pullback may be short-lived.
▼ If price holds above the 4H support and the bullish trend resumes, the overbought conditions could be resolved through time rather than price.
▼ A break above the nearest resistance at 160.389 would invalidate the bearish momentum signal and could trigger a squeeze higher.