USD/JPY – 8H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-09-18 16:00 UTC 16 hours ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +2% Swing

▲ Bullish 34 % (6.86) ▼ Bearish 66 % (13.15)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 4.7 % vs 17.1 % average · stopped out 13.6 % vs 9.1 % (Forex, 191 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.69
▲	ULTOSC OB Exit	indicator	2.58
▲	KST Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.59
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.48
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.45
▼	KELTNER UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.37
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.34
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.33
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.14
▼	Last Engulfing Bottom	candlestick	1.12
▼	ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.09
▼	Last Engulfing Top	candlestick	0.96
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	0.90
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.73

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

12H

UPSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A cluster of bearish signals on the 8H chart points to a short-term pullback in USD/JPY.
The broader trend remains bullish, so this is likely a correction within an uptrend.
Watch the 160.38900 resistance as the invalidation level for the bearish setup.
The nearest support at 152.88300 is the key downside target to monitor.

The USD/JPY 8H signal has fired a cluster of bearish indicators, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, and exits from overbought zones on both ULTOSC and WILLR. The EMA 200 Retreat Down and ER Level Cross Down further suggest that momentum is fading and price may be pulling back from extended levels. While the broader trend across timeframes remains bullish, the 8H signal indicates a short-term correction is likely, with the nearest support at 152.88300 as the primary downside target.

Despite the bullish trend on higher timeframes (12H and 1D both show solid trends), the confluence of multiple bearish signals on the 8H timeframe suggests that the immediate momentum has shifted. The 15m to 4H timeframes are all in bullish but 'trend forming' phases, which means the pullback could be shallow. The key resistance at 160.38900 is the level to watch; if price breaks above it, the bearish signal would be invalidated. Traders should monitor for a bounce at support or a continuation lower, but the overall uptrend may limit the downside.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple overbought exit signals (ULTOSC, WILLR) suggest momentum is stretched and due for a correction.
▼ The BOP Zero Cross Down and ER Level Cross Down indicate selling pressure is building.
▼ The EMA 200 Retreat Down confirms that price is pulling away from the moving average, supporting a bearish bias.
▼ The signal strength is moderate with a 65% probability, adding weight to the bearish case.

Risk Factors

▲ The higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are in solid bullish trends, which could override the 8H bearish signal.
▲ If price breaks above the 160.38900 resistance, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
▲ The bullish trend on lower timeframes (15m-4H) may indicate that the pullback is shallow and short-lived.
▲ Momentum could fade quickly if the signal loses strength, leading to a sideways consolidation instead of a clear move down.