AUD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-09-21 04:00 UTC 15 hours ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +11% Intraday

▲ Bullish 34 % (4.02) ▼ Bearish 66 % (7.89)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

48.7% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 5.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 12 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 9× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 9× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Sep 2026, 02:00 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.73
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	2.44
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.34
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.22
▼	DPO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.91
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	1.79
▲	FISHER Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.74
▼	HT TRENDLINE Break Down	indicator	1.60
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.60
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.54
▲	MOM Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.46
▲	ROC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.46
▲	ROCR Cross Up	indicator	1.46
▼	CMO Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.44
▼	RSI Midline Cross Down	indicator	1.44
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.44
▼	KELTNER MID Cross Down	indicator	1.44
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.23

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPSolid trend

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple 1H indicators align bearish, signaling a strong short-term sell opportunity.
Key support at 111.43800 is the immediate downside target; watch for a break or bounce.
Higher timeframes (2H-12H) remain bullish, so this sell may be a pullback within a larger uptrend.
A close above 112.61300 would invalidate the bearish setup.

The 1H AUD/JPY chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, including CMO Zero Cross Down, RSI Midline Cross Down, STOCH KD Cross Down, and a DEMA Retreat Down, alongside a break of a HT TRENDLINE. This confluence of momentum and trend indicators points to a strong downside push on the hourly timeframe, with the 82% probability and strong strength score reflecting high conviction. The immediate target is the nearest support at 111.43800, while a failure to hold this level could extend the move lower.

However, the broader picture is mixed. While the 15m, 30m, and 1D timeframes align bearish, the 2H, 4H, 8H, and 12H timeframes remain bullish, with the 8H and 12H showing solid uptrends. This divergence creates a headwind for the short-term sell signal, as the higher timeframes suggest the broader trend may still be up. The 1H signal is best viewed as a counter-trend pullback within a larger bullish structure, and traders should watch the nearest resistance at 112.61300 as a key invalidation zone. If price reclaims this level, the bearish thesis weakens significantly.

Catalysts

▼ Heavy confluence of 15+ bearish indicators on the 1H timeframe, including CMO, RSI, STOCH, and DEMA signals.
▼ Break of the HT TRENDLINE adds a technical breakdown element to the bearish case.
▼ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m) are also bearish, confirming short-term momentum.
▼ Strong signal probability (82%) and strength score.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (2H-12H) are bullish, with solid trends on 8H and 12H, which could overpower the 1H sell signal.
▲ The 1H trend is rated as choppy/sideways, suggesting the bearish move may lack follow-through.
▲ A rally above the nearest resistance at 112.61300 would invalidate the setup.
▲ Momentum signals like MOM and ROC Cross Up are actually bullish, creating a mixed picture within the bearish cluster.