AUD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-09-21 16:00 UTC 15 hours ago

59.3 % ↑ +3.9 zur Vorkerze

STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 12 % (2.83) ▼ Bearish 88 % (20.60)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

45.5% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 87.9 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 4 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Weakening. Conviction is lower than at entry — worth watching, no action implied.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.70
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.61
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.56
▼	STOCHRSI KD Cross Down	indicator	1.15
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.08
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	0.97

Trend Context

15M

DOWNVery strong trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal cluster on 4H, with multiple indicators confirming downside momentum.
Lower timeframes are bearish, but higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H) are still bullish, so this may be a pullback.
Watch resistance at 114.667; a break above would invalidate the bearish setup.
Support at 109.661 is the main downside target and a key level for potential reversal.

The 4H AUD/JPY chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHRSI KD Cross Down, SMA 200 Retreat Down, KDJ Cross Down, ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat, and a Belt Hold Bearish candlestick. This confluence suggests strong selling pressure at the upper Bollinger band, with momentum and trend indicators all aligning to the downside. The signal strength is rated very strong, and the probability is at 100%, indicating a high-confidence setup in the current context.

Across timeframes, the lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h, 2h) are all bearish, with the 15m showing a very strong trend. However, the 4H, 8H, and 12H timeframes are still bullish, which creates a conflict. The daily is bearish but only trend forming. This mixed picture suggests the bearish move may be a pullback within a larger bullish structure, but the immediate momentum is clearly down. Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 114.667, which should hold as resistance, and the nearest support at 109.661, which is the primary downside target and potential reversal zone.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicators (BOP, STOCHRSI, KDJ, ACCBANDS) all firing bearish simultaneously, showing strong confluence.
▼ Belt Hold Bearish candlestick pattern adds a price-action confirmation.
▼ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m) show very strong and solid bearish trends, supporting immediate downside momentum.
▼ Price retreating from the upper Bollinger Band (ACCBANDS UPPER) often signals a reversion to the mean.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H) are still bullish, which could limit the downside or lead to a bounce.
▲ If price breaks above the 114.667 resistance, the bearish signal is invalidated.
▲ The 100% probability is extremely high and may be overconfident; market conditions can change quickly.
▲ Momentum could fade if the daily trend (bearish but only forming) fails to confirm.