AUD/USD – 1H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-09-21 15:00 UTC 48 minutes ago

59.3 % – erste Kerze

STRONG ⚡ Confluence +19% Intraday

▲ Bullish 16 % (3.64) ▼ Bearish 84 % (18.91)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

50.1% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 83.9 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Trendline Break Downbreak + retest	trendline	2.59
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.28
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	2.17
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	2.08
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.48
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.48
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.47
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.36
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	1.05
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	0.90

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

The 1H signal is strongly bearish with a cluster of eight signals, all pointing lower.
Higher timeframes (4H to 1D) are bearish, aligning with the 1H sell signal.
Key support is at 0.71031; a break below would confirm the bearish move.
Resistance at 0.71358 is the invalidation level; a move above would negate the signal.

The 1H AUD/USD signal is strongly bearish, firing a cluster of eight signals led by a trendline break down, with momentum oscillators (STOCHF, WILLR, BOP) all turning lower and price retreating from both the EMA 200 and SMA 200. The ZSCORE extreme high exit adds a mean-reversion flavor, suggesting the recent upside was stretched. While the 1H chart itself had been bullish but choppy, the higher timeframes (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are all bearish, with the 8H showing a solid trend. This creates a bearish alignment across the higher timeframes, and the 1H signal is likely the initiation of a move that aligns with the larger downtrend.

Key levels to watch are resistance at 0.71358 and support at 0.71031. A break below support would confirm the bearish continuation, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the setup. The lower timeframes (15m, 30m) are still bullish but weak, so any bounce could be shallow. The confluence of the trendline break, momentum crossovers, and EMA/SMA retreats on the 1H, combined with the bearish higher timeframe trend, gives this signal a high probability (83%) and strong strength.

Catalysts

▼ Trendline break down on the 1H chart, a classic bearish pattern.
▼ Momentum indicators (STOCHF, WILLR, BOP) all turning lower, confirming selling pressure.
▼ Price retreating from both EMA 200 and SMA 200, indicating rejection at key moving averages.
▼ Higher timeframe trend (4H to 1D) is bearish, providing a strong tailwind.

Risk Factors

▲ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m) are still bullish, which could lead to a short-term bounce.
▲ The 1H trend was bullish (though choppy) prior to the signal, so the bearish move may be a pullback rather than a reversal.
▲ If price reclaims resistance at 0.71358, the signal is invalidated.
▲ ZSCORE extreme high exit suggests the move may be overextended, so a sharp reversal could occur.