AUD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 11× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-28 16:00 UTC 20 hours ago

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 6× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 6× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC, updated 11× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	2.51
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.47
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.40
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.39
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.91
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.63
▲	Northern Doji	candlestick	1.08
▼	Bearish Harami Cross	candlestick	1.08
▼	Tweezers Top	candlestick	0.83

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish confluence: multiple indicators and candlestick patterns align on the 1H chart.
Multi-timeframe alignment supports the downtrend, with solid bearish trends from 30m to 12h.
Watch for a break below 110.144 support to confirm further downside; reclaiming 112.303 would invalidate.
The high probability and strength of the signal suggest a high-confidence setup, but always manage risk.

The 1H chart for AUD/JPY has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, multiple moving-average retreats (DEMA, EMA, MAMA PRICE, MIDPOINT), an HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down, and bearish candlestick patterns (Northern Doji, Bearish Harami Cross). This confluence points to strong selling pressure and a likely continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The trend across timeframes reinforces the bearish bias: all timeframes from 30m up to 12h are in a solid bearish trend (3/5), while the 15m and 1D are forming trends (2/5) but in the same direction. The alignment across multiple horizons adds conviction to the signal.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 112.303, which now serves as a ceiling, and the nearest support at 110.144. A break below support would likely accelerate the decline, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. The signal's high probability (95%) and very strong strength, combined with the multi-timeframe bearish alignment, suggest the path of least resistance is lower, but traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation or reversal signs.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple moving-average retreats (DEMA, EMA, MAMA PRICE, MIDPOINT) indicate persistent downward momentum.
▼ BOP Zero Cross Down and HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down confirm bearish pressure.
▼ Bearish candlestick patterns (Northern Doji, Bearish Harami Cross) add reversal confirmation.
▼ Trend alignment across all timeframes from 30m to 12h strengthens the bearish case.

Risk Factors

▲ The 15m and 1D timeframes are only 'trend forming', which could signal a potential shift or consolidation.
▲ If price breaks above the nearest resistance at 112.303, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
▲ Bearish signals on lower timeframes can be prone to false breakouts, especially near support.
▲ Momentum could fade if the price approaches the support level without a decisive break.