AUD/JPY – 2H – BUY

BUY 5× UPDATED

2026-09-28 14:00 UTC 20 hours ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +60% Intraday

▲ Bullish 97 % (56.04) ▼ Bearish 3 % (1.50)

6 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

55.4% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 2.8 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 11 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 8.4 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 12.6 % vs 11.1 % (Forex, 143 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC, updated 5× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	2.19
▲	WILLR OS Exit	indicator	1.96
▲	CCI OS Exit	indicator	1.73
▲	KDJ OS Exit	indicator	1.72
▲	ZSCORE Extreme Low Exit	indicator	1.46
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.26
▲	VORTEX Cross Up	indicator	1.26
▲	KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	1.13
▲	Closing Marubozu Bullish	candlestick	1.13
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.09

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A confluence of oversold exit signals on the 2H chart points to a potential bullish reversal in AUD/JPY.
Higher timeframes (30m to 12h) remain in solid downtrends, so this is a counter-trend signal with limited upside unless resistance breaks.
Key levels: resistance at 112.61300 and support at 109.66100; watch for a close above resistance to confirm bullish momentum.
The signal is very strong (93% probability), but traders should wait for confirmation on the higher timeframe or a break of resistance before adding to positions.

The AUD/JPY 2H signal has fired a cluster of bullish reversal indicators, including CCI OS Exit, STOCHF KD Cross Up, WILLR OS Exit, ER Level Cross Down, KDJ OS Exit, HMA Retreat Up, KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat, and ZSCORE Extreme Low Exit. These signals collectively suggest that the oversold conditions on the 2H chart are unwinding and that a short-term bounce is likely. The candlestick group adds confluence, reinforcing the idea that selling pressure may be exhausting near the lower bounds of the price range.

However, the broader trend across higher timeframes remains bearish, with solid downtrends on the 30m through 12h charts and a forming downtrend on the daily. This creates a conflicting picture: the 2H signal points to a counter-trend rally, but the higher-timeframe momentum is still to the downside. The nearest resistance at 112.61300 is a critical level to watch; a break above it could signal a more meaningful reversal, while the nearest support at 109.66100 serves as the immediate floor. Given the strong signal strength and high probability, traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation or invalidation.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple oversold exit signals (CCI, WILLR, KDJ, ZSCORE) align, indicating a strong bounce setup.
▲ STOCHF KD Cross Up and HMA Retreat Up add momentum confirmation for the bullish move.
▲ KELTNER LOWER Lower Retreat suggests price is retreating from the lower band, often a precursor to upward movement.
▲ The candlestick group adds confluence, increasing the reliability of the reversal signal.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (1H to 12H) are in solid downtrends, which could overpower the 2H bullish signal.
▼ The nearest resistance at 112.61300 is a potential ceiling; failure to break above it could lead to a resumption of the downtrend.
▼ The 15m trend is only forming and weak (2/5), so short-term momentum may not be strong enough to sustain a rally.
▼ If price breaks below the nearest support at 109.66100, the bullish signal would be invalidated.