AUD/JPY – 30M – BUY

BUY 8× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-28 03:00 UTC 16 hours ago

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.7 % vs 18.3 % average · stopped out 14.3 % vs 11.1 % (Forex, 196 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 13× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 13× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 00:30 UTC, updated 8× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ICHIMOKU TK Cross Down	indicator	2.39
▲	ZSCORE Extreme Low Exit	indicator	2.35
▲	KDJ OS Exit	indicator	1.97
▲	WILLR OS Exit	indicator	1.95
▲	RSI OS Exit	indicator	1.92
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.79
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.72
▲	TTM TREND Trend Up	indicator	1.56
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.53
▼	TRIX Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▲	CMO OS Exit	indicator	1.39
▲	Belt Hold Bullish	candlestick	1.37
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.31
▲	Bullish Engulfing	candlestick	1.17
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	0.82

Trend Context

15M

DOWNVery strong trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple oversold exit signals (CMO, RSI, WILLR) suggest a potential short-term bounce.
Trend is mixed: bearish on lower timeframes, bullish on higher timeframes, so expect choppy price action.
Watch the 112.61300 resistance and 110.56200 support for direction confirmation.
The bullish signals are strong but may be counter-trend; use proper risk management.

The AUD/JPY 30-minute chart has triggered a cluster of bullish signals, including BOP Zero Cross Up, CMO OS Exit, RSI OS Exit, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and WILLR OS Exit. These indicate that oversold conditions are unwinding and buying pressure is emerging, which could lead to a short-term bounce. However, the overall trend across timeframes is mixed: the 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes are bearish, while the 4h, 8h, and 12h are bullish. This suggests that the current bullish signal may be a counter-trend move within a larger bullish structure, but the immediate momentum is still downward.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 112.61300 and support at 110.56200. A break above resistance could confirm a stronger reversal, while a drop below support would invalidate the bullish case. Given the strong probability (79%) and strong signal strength, traders should watch for a bullish continuation, but remain cautious due to the conflicting trend alignment across timeframes.

Catalysts

▲ Cluster of oversold exit signals indicates selling momentum is exhausting.
▲ BOP Zero Cross Up and STOCHF KD Cross Up confirm increasing buying pressure.
▲ Higher timeframes (4h, 8h, 12h) are bullish, suggesting the larger trend may support a bounce.
▲ Strong signal strength and high probability (79%) add confidence.

Risk Factors

▼ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h) are bearish, which could overwhelm the bullish signal.
▼ A break below the nearest support at 110.56200 would invalidate the bullish setup.
▼ The TRIX Zero Cross Down and HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down indicate underlying bearish momentum.
▼ Resistance at 112.61300 may cap upside if not broken.