AUD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 7× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-28 14:00 UTC 19 hours ago

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 13× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 13× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Descending Trianglebreak + retest	chart_pattern	4.43
▼	EMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.29
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.28
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.01
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.97
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	1.87
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.70
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.53
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.47
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.37
▲	WILLR OS Entry	indicator	1.34
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	0.89
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.82

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A bearish Descending Triangle breakdown on the 30-minute chart is confirmed by a host of momentum and trend indicators.
All timeframes from 15-minute to daily are bearish, with the 30-minute showing a very strong trend.
The nearest resistance at 110.89100 is the key level to watch for any bounce; there is no nearby support defined.
The signal is extremely strong (97% probability), but the absence of support means downside could be rapid.

The AUD/JPY 30-minute chart has triggered a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Descending Triangle breakdown and confirmed by a BOP Zero Cross Down, a STOCH KD Cross Down, and a WILLR oversold entry. The momentum is reinforced by multiple moving average retreats (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, and MAMA PRICE), all pointing to a strong downward push. The trend across timeframes is uniformly bearish, with the 30-minute showing a very strong trend (4/5) and the 15-minute, 1-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour all showing solid bearish trends. This alignment suggests the current sell-off is not isolated but part of a broader downtrend, increasing the likelihood of continued downside.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 110.89100, which now acts as a ceiling for any pullback attempts. With no nearby support defined, the path of least resistance is lower, but traders should be cautious of the lack of a clear support level, which could lead to sharp moves. The high probability (97%) and very strong strength underscore the conviction behind this signal, but as always, risk management remains paramount.

Catalysts

▼ Uniform bearish trend across all timeframes, with the 30-minute showing a very strong trend (4/5).
▼ Multiple moving average retreats (DEMA, EMA, KAMA, MAMA PRICE) all confirm the downward momentum.
▼ The Descending Triangle pattern provides a classic bearish continuation setup, reinforced by the BOP Zero Cross Down and STOCH KD Cross Down.
▼ The WILLR oversold entry suggests the market is already in a strong downtrend, with momentum favoring further decline.

Risk Factors

▲ The nearest support is undefined, which could lead to a sharp, volatile move without a clear floor.
▲ The 2-hour and 4-hour trends are only 'forming' (2/5), which may indicate a lack of confirmation on higher timeframes.
▲ A break back above the resistance at 110.89100 would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
▲ The WILLR oversold condition might hint at a potential short-term bounce, especially if momentum fades.