AUD/USD – 30M – BUY

BUY NEW

2026-09-28 20:00 UTC 1 hour ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +60% Scalping

▲ Bullish 96 % (49.33) ▼ Bearish 4 % (2.17)

6 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

56.1% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 12.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.0 % vs 18.3 % average · stopped out 14.7 % vs 11.1 % (Forex, 163 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	Falling Wedgebreak + retest	chart_pattern	3.84
▲	Double Bottombreak + retest	chart_pattern	3.58
▼	BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down	indicator	2.17
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	2.08
▲	MIDPRICE Retreat Up	indicator	1.67
▲	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up	indicator	1.66
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.63
▲	CMO Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.63
▲	RSI Midline Cross Up	indicator	1.63
▲	MIDPOINT Retreat Up	indicator	1.63
▲	EMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.61
▲	MA Retreat Up	indicator	1.61
▲	DEMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.59
▲	KAMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.56
▲	MAMA Cross Up	indicator	1.50
▲	Spinning Top Bullish	candlestick	1.11
▲	Bullish Harami	candlestick	1.05

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bullish reversal signals on the 30-minute chart, but they are against the higher-timeframe bearish trend.
Watch the immediate resistance at 0.70289; a break could extend the bounce, but it may also be a selling zone.
Support at 0.70076 is critical—losing it invalidates the bullish case.
Expect a counter-trend move rather than a full reversal until higher timeframes turn bullish.

The AUD/USD 30-minute chart has fired a cluster of bullish signals, including a Double Bottom and Falling Wedge, alongside multiple momentum oscillators crossing above their zero lines and the RSI crossing above its midpoint. This confluence suggests a strong short-term reversal attempt, with the price likely to challenge the nearest resistance at 0.70289. However, the broader trend remains bearish across higher timeframes, from the 1-hour up to the daily, which means this bullish signal should be viewed as a counter-trend bounce rather than a full trend reversal.

The alignment across timeframes is mixed: the 15-minute and 30-minute charts show early bullish trends, while all higher timeframes remain firmly bearish. This divergence indicates that the current upside momentum is likely corrective. Key levels to watch are the immediate resistance at 0.70289, which if broken could extend the bounce, and the support at 0.70076, which must hold to maintain the bullish structure. A break below that support would invalidate the setup and likely resume the broader downtrend.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple chart patterns (Double Bottom, Falling Wedge) align on the 30-minute timeframe, signaling a potential trend reversal.
▲ Momentum indicators (BOP, CMO, RSI) all crossing above key levels confirm increasing bullish pressure.
▲ The price is holding above the nearest support, providing a base for the bounce.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (1H to 1D) are all in solid bearish trends, which could overpower the short-term bullish signal.
▼ The nearest resistance at 0.70289 may cap gains, especially if the broader downtrend resumes.
▼ If the price breaks below support at 0.70076, the bullish setup is invalidated and the downtrend likely continues.

Symbol AUD/USD

Timeframe 30M

Direction BUY

Conviction 12%

Strength WEAK

Date 2026-09-28 20:00

cat_ Forex Forex