USD/CAD – 4H – BUY
BUY 3× UPDATED
16 hours ago
59.3 %
↓ −1.7 zur Vorkerze
VERY STRONG
⚡ Confluence +4%
Swing
▲ Bullish 90 % (12.51)
▼ Bearish 10 % (1.37)
5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit
47.0% of closed signals in this class ended above zero
model score 90.1 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)
Überzeugung · 5 Kerzen
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Signal evolution
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
50% — below this the other side leads
Weakening. Conviction is lower than at entry — worth watching, no action implied.
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened
(28 Sep 2026, 04:00 UTC, updated 3× since).
They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by
candle on this page until it closes.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | BBANDS UPPER Break Up | indicator | 2.98 |
| ▲ | SMA Break Up | indicator | 2.86 |
| ▲ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.43 |
| ▲ | MA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.42 |
| ▲ | TRIMA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.36 |
| ▲ | ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Breakout | indicator | 2.28 |
| ▲ | KELTNER UPPER Upper Breakout | indicator | 2.27 |
| ▲ | ER Level Cross Up | indicator | 2.05 |
| ▲ | EMA Break Up | indicator | 1.94 |
| ▲ | TSI Signal Cross Up | indicator | 1.89 |
| ▲ | KDJ Cross Up | indicator | 1.75 |
| ▲ | STC Level Cross Up | indicator | 1.66 |
| ▲ | STOCH KD Cross Up | indicator | 1.64 |
| ▲ | CHOP Trending | indicator | 1.61 |
| ▲ | SMI Signal Cross Up | indicator | 1.53 |
| ▲ | MACD Signal Cross Up | indicator | 1.48 |
| ▼ | HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down | indicator | 1.36 |
| ▼ | ZSCORE Extreme High | indicator | 1.00 |
| ▲ | Rising Window | candlestick | 0.99 |
| ▼ | RSI OB Entry | indicator | 0.97 |
| ▲ | Three Inside Up | candlestick | 0.90 |
| ▼ | WILLR OB Entry | indicator | 0.87 |
| ▲ | Long Line Bullish | candlestick | 0.87 |
Trend Context
15MUPVery strong trend
30MUPVery strong trend
1HUPSolid trend
2HUPSolid trend
4HUPVery strong trend
8HUPSolid trend
12HUPSolid trend
1DUPTrend forming
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- The 4H signal is strongly bullish with 92% probability and a very strong trend score, supported by a broad array of momentum and trend indicators.
- All timeframes from 15m to 1D are aligned bullish, with the strongest conviction on 15m, 30m, and 4H, reinforcing the upward bias.
- The nearest support at 1.37593 is the key level to watch; a break below it would invalidate the bullish signal.
- With no resistance overhead, the pair is in price discovery, which could lead to extended gains but also increases the risk of sharp pullbacks.
The USD/CAD 4H signal is overwhelmingly bullish, with a very strong 92% probability and a cluster of momentum and trend indicators firing in unison. The MACD Signal Cross Up, STOCH KD Cross Up, and EMA Break Up all confirm upward momentum, while the RSI and Williams %R entries in overbought territory suggest sustained buying pressure rather than exhaustion. The breakout above the upper Bollinger Band and the retreat up from the higher-timeframe trendline further validate the bullish case, as price is riding the upper envelope of volatility. The alignment of trend scores across all timeframes—from 15m to 1D—shows a synchronized bullish structure, with the strongest conviction on the 15m, 30m, and 4H charts, and a forming daily trend that could add longer-term support.
Key support is identified at 1.37593, which is the nearest support level and should act as the immediate invalidation zone. As long as price holds above this level, the bullish bias remains intact. With no defined resistance overhead, the pair is in price discovery, which can lead to extended moves but also increases the risk of sharp reversals if momentum stalls. Traders should monitor this support closely and watch for any signs of momentum divergence or a break below it, which would negate the bullish setup.
Key support is identified at 1.37593, which is the nearest support level and should act as the immediate invalidation zone. As long as price holds above this level, the bullish bias remains intact. With no defined resistance overhead, the pair is in price discovery, which can lead to extended moves but also increases the risk of sharp reversals if momentum stalls. Traders should monitor this support closely and watch for any signs of momentum divergence or a break below it, which would negate the bullish setup.
Catalysts
- ▲ Trend alignment across all timeframes, with a very strong trend on the 4H and multiple timeframes showing solid bullish structure.
- ▲ Confluence of multiple momentum indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Williams %R, RSI) all confirming upward momentum.
- ▲ Breakout above the upper Bollinger Band and EMA break up indicate strong bullish volatility and trend continuation.
- ▲ Higher-timeframe trendline retreat up suggests buyers are stepping in at higher lows, supporting the bullish case.
Risk Factors
- ▼ Overbought conditions on RSI and Williams %R could lead to a pullback or consolidation before further upside.
- ▼ A break below the nearest support at 1.37593 would invalidate the bullish signal and could trigger a sharp reversal.
- ▼ With no resistance overhead, the pair is in uncharted territory; profit-taking or news shocks could cause rapid reversals.
- ▼ The daily trend is only 'forming' (2/5), so the longer-term bullishness is not yet fully established, which could limit upside momentum.
Symbol
USD/CAD
Timeframe
4H
Direction
BUY
Conviction
90%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-09-28 00:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| S1 | 1.37593 | 2026-09-08 |
| S2 | 1.37317 | 2026-08-21 |