USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-09-28 05:00 UTC 2 hours ago

53.6 % ↑ +18.3 zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +2% Intraday

▲ Bullish 38 % (3.30) ▼ Bearish 62 % (5.40)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

48.7% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 62.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 5.1 % vs 16.7 % average · stopped out 13.3 % vs 9.2 % (Forex, 196 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 03:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down	indicator	1.50
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.34
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.28
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.25
▼	ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	0.88

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPTrend forming

12H

UPSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signals on the 1H chart suggest a short-term pullback, but the broader trend is still bullish.
Watch the nearest support at 156.575; a break below could confirm the bearish move.
Resistance at 158.052 is the key level to the upside; a break above would invalidate the bearish setup.
The signal strength is very strong, but the higher-timeframe trend conflict adds uncertainty.

The 1H USD/JPY chart has fired a cluster of bearish signals, including a STOCHF KD Cross Down, a BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down, and an HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down, alongside HMA and ACCBANDS upper retreats. These indicators collectively suggest that the recent upward momentum is stalling and that price may be poised to retreat from overbought conditions. However, the broader trend across all timeframes remains bullish, with solid trends on the 15-minute, 12-hour, and daily charts. This creates a conflict between the short-term bearish signal and the higher-timeframe bullish trend, implying that any downside may be a pullback within a larger uptrend rather than a reversal.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.052 and support at 156.575. A break below support would validate the bearish signal and could open the door for further declines, while a hold above support would suggest the pullback is shallow and the bullish trend remains intact. Traders should monitor whether price respects the support level and whether the bearish momentum persists on lower timeframes. Given the strong bearish signal probability, the immediate bias is for a move lower, but the bullish higher-timeframe trend warrants caution against expecting a deep or prolonged decline.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish indicators align on the 1H timeframe, increasing the likelihood of a downward move.
▼ The retreat from the upper Bollinger Band and upper Accelerator Bands suggests overbought conditions may be unwinding.
▼ The STOCHF cross down indicates fading upward momentum, a classic precursor to a pullback.

Risk Factors

▲ All higher timeframes show bullish trends, which could overpower the short-term bearish signal.
▲ If price holds above the nearest support at 156.575, the bearish move may fail and reverse higher.
▲ The bullish daily trend (solid) suggests that any decline could be shallow and quickly bought.
▲ A break above resistance at 158.052 would invalidate the bearish signal and signal continued upside.