USD/JPY – 30M – BUY

BUY 14× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-09-28 14:30 UTC 19 hours ago

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 6× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 6× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC, updated 14× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	SMI Signal Cross Up	indicator	1.96
▲	STOCHRSI KD Cross Up	indicator	1.83
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.70
▲	SMA 200 Retreat Up	indicator	1.64
▲	EMA 200 Retreat Up	indicator	1.63
▲	ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Retreat	indicator	1.60
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.33
▲	Bullish Harami	candlestick	1.19

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense cluster of bullish signals on the 30M chart suggests a potential bounce, but the immediate trend is still bearish.
Higher timeframes (4H and above) are bullish, supporting the idea that the pullback is temporary.
Key levels: resistance at 157.857 and support at 156.575—watch for a break of either to confirm direction.
The signal strength is very strong with 91% probability, but confirmation from price action is needed.

The 30-minute USD/JPY chart is flashing a dense cluster of bullish signals, including a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern and multiple indicator crossovers (BOP Zero Cross Up, STOCHRSI KD Cross Up, SMI Signal Cross Up). These are reinforced by the EMA 200 and SMA 200 Retreat Up signals, suggesting that price is bouncing off key moving averages. While the immediate 15m and 30m trends are still bearish, the higher timeframes (4h, 8h, 12h, 1d) are all bullish, indicating that the larger trend is up and the current pullback may be a temporary retracement.

Traders should watch the nearest resistance at 157.857 and support at 156.575. A break above resistance would confirm the bullish reversal and align with the higher-timeframe uptrend. Conversely, a loss of support would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a deeper correction. The confluence of multiple signals on the 30M chart, combined with the bullish higher timeframes, gives this setup a high probability (91%) and very strong strength, but the conflicting lower-timeframe bearishness warrants caution.

Catalysts

▲ Bullish Harami candlestick pattern on the 30M chart signals a potential reversal.
▲ Multiple indicator crossovers (BOP, STOCHRSI, SMI) align with the bullish move.
▲ EMA 200 and SMA 200 Retreat Up indicate price bouncing off key moving averages.
▲ Higher timeframe trends (4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are all bullish, providing a supportive backdrop.

Risk Factors

▼ The 15M and 30M trends are still bearish, which could override the bullish signals if momentum continues down.
▼ A break below the nearest support at 156.575 would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a deeper correction.
▼ The 1H and 2H trends are only forming (2/5), so the medium-term direction is not fully confirmed.
▼ The signal is on a 30M timeframe, which is short-term; higher-timeframe resistance may cap upside.