USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-09-28 05:30 UTC 2 hours ago

35.3 % ↓ −24.0 zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +7% Scalping

▲ Bullish 28 % (4.05) ▼ Bearish 72 % (10.51)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

52.5% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 10.8 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 5 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 5.1 % vs 16.7 % average · stopped out 13.3 % vs 9.2 % (Forex, 196 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

Loading…

Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Sep 2026, 03:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	2.34
▲	RSX OB Exit	indicator	2.23
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.22
▼	AO Saucer Bearish	indicator	1.98
▼	T3 Retreat Down	indicator	1.67
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.60
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.58
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.28

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPTrend forming

12H

UPSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signals on the 30-minute chart suggest a short-term pullback, but the higher timeframe trend is bullish.
Watch the support at 156.57500; a break below could signal deeper correction, while holding it may see the uptrend continue.
Resistance at 158.05200 is the nearest upside barrier; a move above would invalidate the bearish case.
The signal is moderate strength, so confirmation from price action is recommended before acting.

The 30-minute USD/JPY chart has triggered a cluster of bearish signals, including WILLR OB Exit, T3 Retreat Down, HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down, AO Saucer Bearish, RSX OB Exit, ALMA Break Down, HMA Retreat Down, and TTM TREND Trend Down. These indicators collectively point to a short-term pullback or reversal from overbought conditions, with momentum shifting lower. However, the broader trend across all timeframes remains bullish, with solid trends on the 15-minute, 12-hour, and daily charts, and forming trends on the intermediate timeframes. This suggests the bearish signal is likely a corrective move within a larger uptrend rather than a major trend reversal.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.05200 and support at 156.57500. A break below support could confirm the bearish momentum and open the door for further downside, while a hold above support might see the bullish trend resume. The alignment of the 30-minute signal against the higher timeframe bullish bias creates a mixed picture, so traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicators (WILLR, RSX, T3, HMA, TTM) all point to overbought conditions and a downward turn, increasing confluence.
▼ The AO Saucer Bearish and HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down add to the bearish momentum signals.
▼ The ALMA Break Down confirms a break of a key moving average, often a precursor to further downside.
▼ The 30-minute signal aligns with the 15-minute solid trend, which is also bullish but may be losing steam.

Risk Factors

▲ The higher timeframes (1h, 2h, 4h, 8h, 12h, 1d) are all bullish, which could overwhelm the 30-minute bearish signal and lead to a quick reversal.
▲ The nearest support at 156.57500 is relatively close; if it holds, the bearish move may be shallow and the uptrend resumes.
▲ Momentum on the 30-minute chart may fade if the price fails to break below support, leading to a consolidation instead of a sustained decline.
▲ A break above the resistance at 158.05200 would invalidate the bearish setup and signal a continuation of the bullish trend.