AUD/USD – 4H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-09-30 20:00 UTC 8 hours ago

35.3 % ↓ −11.6 zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +6% Swing

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (20.19)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

47.0% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 0.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (1 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	2.63
▼	DEMA Break Down	indicator	2.53
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	2.48
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.08
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	2.00
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.91
▼	Long Line Bearish	candlestick	0.82

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish alignment on 4H and higher timeframes, with multiple moving-average breaks confirming momentum.
A Long Line Bearish candlestick adds weight to the sell signal, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
The nearest resistance at 0.71398 is a key level to watch; a break above it could invalidate the bearish setup.
Short-term bullish signals on 15m/30m are weak and likely to be temporary bounces within the larger downtrend.

The AUD/USD 4H chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals: DEMA Break Down, ALMA Break Down, HMA Break Down, MAMA PRICE Retreat Down, MIDPOINT Retreat Down, MIDPRICE Retreat Down, and a Long Line Bearish candlestick. Together they indicate strong downward momentum and a clear bearish structure on the 4H timeframe. The trend is confirmed across the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H all bearish, with 4H rated very strong), while the 1H is also bearish but still forming. The 15m and 30m show short-term bullish attempts, but they are weak (trend scores 2/5 and 1/5) and likely to be counter-trend bounces within the larger downtrend.

Key levels to watch: the nearest resistance is at 0.71398, which aligns with the broken moving averages and could act as a pivot if price retraces. There is no defined nearest support, so downside targets are open, but traders should monitor for any signs of a bullish reversal on the 4H or higher timeframes. The confluence of multiple moving-average breaks and a bearish candlestick pattern, combined with strong trend scores, gives the signal high conviction. However, the short-term bullish momentum on the 15m/30m could cause a brief pullback before the downtrend resumes.

Catalysts

▼ Strong trend alignment across multiple timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H all bearish).
▼ Confluence of multiple moving-average breakdowns (DEMA, ALMA, HMA) and midpoint/price retreats.
▼ Bearish candlestick pattern (Long Line Bearish) adds confirmation.
▼ Very strong trend score on the 4H timeframe (4/5).

Risk Factors

▲ Short-term bullish momentum on 15m/30m could cause a pullback, delaying the move.
▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 0.71398 would invalidate the bearish signal.
▲ The 1D timeframe is only 'trend forming' (2/5), so the larger daily trend is not yet fully bearish.
▲ No defined support below means the move could be volatile, and a sudden reversal could occur.