USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-10-05 15:00 UTC 1 hour ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +6% Scalping

▲ Bullish 16 % (1.74) ▼ Bearish 84 % (9.19)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

54.4% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 3.8 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 10.7 % vs 20.0 % average · stopped out 18.0 % vs 12.1 % (Forex, 289 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (5 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.74
▼	BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down	indicator	1.62
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.62
▼	STOCHRSI KD Cross Down	indicator	1.53
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.42
▼	Bearish Harami	candlestick	1.04

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A strong bearish signal cluster has fired on the 30-minute chart, suggesting a short-term pullback.
The bearish signals are aligned with intermediate timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) but conflict with the higher-timeframe bullish trend.
Watch the nearest support at 157.43800 for a potential downside target; a break below could signal a deeper correction.
The nearest resistance at 158.22100 is the key invalidation level; a break above would negate the bearish setup.

The 30-minute USD/JPY chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, all pointing to a short-term pullback within a broader uptrend. The confluence of a BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHRSI KD Cross Down, and BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down indicates deteriorating buying pressure and a rejection from the upper Bollinger Band. The Bearish Harami candlestick pattern reinforces the bearish reversal sentiment, while the SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up and ZSCORE Extreme High Exit suggest that a period of low volatility is ending and price is moving away from an overextended level. With an 84% probability and strong strength, this signal carries significant weight.

Trend alignment is mixed across timeframes. The 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, 12-hour, and daily timeframes are bullish, while the 2-hour, 4-hour, and 8-hour timeframes are bearish. This suggests that the sell signal is likely a counter-trend move against the higher-timeframe bullish bias, but it aligns with the bearish momentum on the intermediate timeframes. The nearest resistance at 158.22100 is the level to watch for invalidation, while the nearest support at 157.43800 is the immediate downside target. A break below support could open the door for a deeper correction, but the bullish higher timeframes may limit downside potential.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish signals (BOP, STOCHRSI, BBANDS, Bearish Harami) provide strong confluence.
▼ The SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up and ZSCORE Extreme High Exit suggest a volatility expansion from an overextended level, often preceding a move back to the mean.
▼ Intermediate timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) are bearish, supporting the short-term sell direction.
▼ The signal's high probability (84%) and strong strength indicate robust technical alignment.

Risk Factors

▲ The higher timeframes (15M, 30M, 1H, 12H, 1D) are bullish, which could limit downside and lead to a quick reversal.
▲ The overall trend on the daily timeframe is bullish, so the sell signal may be counter-trend and prone to failure.
▲ If price breaks above the nearest resistance at 158.22100, the bearish setup is invalidated.
▲ Momentum could fade if the price fails to break below the nearest support at 157.43800, leading to a sideways consolidation.