USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-10-14 13:00 UTC 1 hour ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.01 %

Entry

158.432

Target

158.114 +0.20 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.752 −0.20 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 3 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average −0.01 % per trade 1,683 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,683 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.24 % 35 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.10 % 41 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 8 % at stop avg −0.38 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ZLMA Break Down, HMA Retreat Down, STOCH KD Cross Down +1 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 22,209 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % ↑ +24.0 vs previous candle

STRONG Scalping

▲ Bullish 24 % (1.84) ▼ Bearish 76 % (5.90)

model score 76.2 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 4 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.4 % vs 17.1 % on average · stopped out 14.9 % vs 11.3 % (forex, 429 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (14 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ZLMA Break Down	indicator	2.31
▲	KDJ OB Exit	indicator	2.09
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.84
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.53
▲	APO Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.52
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.33
▲	Inverted Hammer	candlestick	1.02

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple bearish signals on the 30M chart suggest a potential pullback toward 158.11400.
The overall trend is mixed: short-term timeframes are bullish, longer-term are bearish, and the daily is bullish but weak.
The sell signal is counter-trend, so it should be treated with caution; watch the 158.51600 resistance as the invalidation level.
Momentum indicators (STOCH, KDJ, APO) are aligning with the bearish candlestick and moving average breaks.

The 30-minute USD/JPY chart is flashing a cluster of bearish signals, including an Inverted Hammer candlestick, a ZLMA Break Down, and HMA Retreat Down with HMA Direction Down. These are reinforced by momentum indicators: an APO Zero Cross Up (which often precedes a pullback in a downtrend), a STOCH KD Cross Down, and a KDJ OB Exit. Together, they suggest that the recent upward push is losing steam and that price may be poised to retrace toward the nearest support at 158.11400.

However, the trend structure is far from clean. The 15m through 2h timeframes are all bullish, albeit choppy and weak (1/5), while the 4h through 12h are bearish, also choppy and weak. The daily is the only timeframe with a forming trend (2/5) and is bullish. This mixed picture means the sell signal is a counter-trend move against the shorter-term bullish bias, and its probability is only 63% with weak strength. The key is to watch whether price can hold below the nearest resistance at 158.51600; a break back above that level would invalidate the bearish setup.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of candlestick (Inverted Hammer) and indicator signals (APO, STOCH, KDJ, HMA, ZLMA) on the 30M chart.
▼ The 4h-12h timeframes are bearish, providing a longer-term backdrop that supports the sell direction.
▼ The nearest resistance at 158.51600 is a defined level that, if held, could confirm the bearish bias.

Risk Factors

▲ The 15m-2h timeframes are all bullish, which could overpower the 30M bearish signal and lead to a bounce.
▲ The daily timeframe is bullish and trend-forming, suggesting a larger uptrend that may resume.
▲ The signal strength is weak and probability is only 63%, so the edge is limited.
▲ If price breaks above 158.51600, the bearish setup is invalidated and a move higher is likely.