USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-10-21 13:00 UTC 1 hour ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.10 %

Entry

158.083

Target

157.700 +0.24 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −0.33 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 2 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average −0.01 % per trade 2,150 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,150 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

17 % at target avg +0.24 % 34 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 40 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 9 % at stop avg −0.36 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: KAMA Retreat Down, ICHIMOKU Cloud Bearish, EMA 200 Retreat Down +17 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 26,397 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % ↓ −1.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG Scalping

▲ Bullish 10 % (4.09) ▼ Bearish 90 % (38.71)

model score 90.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Weakening. Conviction is lower than at entry — worth watching, no action implied.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	SAR Flip Bullish	indicator	2.37
▼	KAMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.05
▲	AO Saucer Bullish	indicator	2.05
▼	ICHIMOKU Cloud Bearish	indicator	1.96
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.91
▼	SMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.91
▼	MA Retreat Down	indicator	1.89
▼	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down	indicator	1.87
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.58
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.58
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.56
▼	CHOP Choppy	indicator	1.56
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.41
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.33
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.29
▼	MOM Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▼	ROC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▼	ROCR Cross Down	indicator	1.25
▼	QSTICK Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.19
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.93
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	0.84

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense cluster of bearish indicators (BOP, MOM, ROC, STOCH, EMA, HT, KAMA) has fired on the 30-minute chart, signaling strong downside momentum.
All timeframes from 15m to 8h are bearish, though trend scores are weak, indicating choppy conditions within a bearish bias.
Key levels to watch: support at 158.03000 and resistance at 158.39100; a break below support would confirm the sell signal.
Higher timeframes (12h, 1d) are still bullish, but weakly so, so they do not strongly oppose the bearish case.

The USD/JPY 30-minute signal has fired a dense cluster of bearish indicators, including BOP, MOM, ROC, and ROCR zero/directional crosses, STOCH KD cross down, and retreats from EMA 200, HT trendline, and KAMA. This confluence suggests a coordinated momentum shift to the downside, with multiple independent measures confirming the same directional pressure. The very strong probability (90%) reflects the breadth of confirmation across indicator families, while the candlestick group adds price-action confirmation to the technical alignment.

Across timeframes, the picture is consistently bearish from 15 minutes through 8 hours, though trend scores are weak (1-2/5), indicating choppy, sideways trading within a broader bearish bias. The 12-hour and daily timeframes remain bullish but equally weak, so the higher timeframe does not strongly oppose the sell signal. The nearest support at 158.03000 and resistance at 158.39100 define a tight range; a break below support would confirm bearish momentum, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the downside thesis. Traders should watch for follow-through on the 30-minute timeframe and any shift in higher timeframe trend scores.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple independent indicators (BOP, MOM, ROC, ROCR, STOCH, EMA, HT, KAMA) all point in the same bearish direction, creating strong confluence.
▼ Trend alignment across 15m to 8h timeframes supports the bearish bias, even if trend strength is weak.
▼ The signal's very strong probability (90%) and high strength rating reflect the breadth of confirmation.
▼ Candlestick patterns add price-action confirmation to the technical indicator cluster.

Risk Factors

▲ Weak trend scores (1-2/5) across timeframes indicate choppy, sideways trading, which can lead to false breakouts or whipsaws.
▲ The nearest resistance at 158.39100 is close; a reclaim of this level would invalidate the downside signal and could trigger a squeeze.
▲ Higher timeframes (12h, 1d) remain bullish, so if momentum shifts higher, the bearish signal could fade quickly.
▲ With such a tight range between support and resistance, the signal may play out as a range-bound move rather than a sustained downtrend.