USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-22 05:00 UTC 1 day ago

The plan for this signal Closed at target · result +0.41 %

Entry

157.020

Target

156.376 +0.41 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −1.01 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 477 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 477 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

26 % at target avg +0.43 % 25 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 18 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Breakout, Stoch Hidden Bear Div, MACD Hist Hidden Bear Div +15 more

Trend at entry: in 7 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 28,281 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (22 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Breakout	indicator	2.97
▼	Stoch Hidden Bear Div	divergence	2.89
▼	MACD Hist Hidden Bear Div	divergence	2.68
▼	Momentum Hidden Bear Div	divergence	2.65
▼	KELTNER LOWER Lower Breakout	indicator	2.61
▼	HT TRENDLINE Break Down	indicator	2.51
▼	MA Break Down	indicator	2.48
▼	EMA Break Down	indicator	2.43
▼	DEMA Break Down	indicator	2.17
▼	QQE Midline Cross Down	indicator	2.00
▼	MIDPRICE Break Down	indicator	1.97
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	1.86
▼	KAMA Break Down	indicator	1.79
▼	SMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	1.61
▼	MAMA PRICE Break Down	indicator	1.53
▲	SQUEEZE Squeeze Fire	indicator	1.52
▲	CTI OS Entry	indicator	1.32
▼	ERI BULL Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.29
▲	ZSCORE Extreme Low	indicator	1.12
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	0.79
▼	Long Line Bearish	candlestick	0.64

Trend Context

15M

DOWNVery strong trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense cluster of breakdown signals across multiple indicators on the 4H chart points to a strong bearish shift.
The trend is bearish across all timeframes up to 4H, with the strongest momentum in the lower timeframes.
Resistance at 158.60300 is the key invalidation level; a break above would weaken the bearish case.
Support at 156.95100 is the primary downside target; a break below would confirm the trend.

The USD/JPY 4H signal is a powerful bearish confluence, with a very strong probability (95%) and a dense cluster of breakdown signals across multiple moving averages, trendlines, and price-based indicators. The alignment of DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA, MA, MAMA PRICE, MIDPRICE, and SMA 50 Retreat Down, along with additional candlestick and divergence signals, points to a broad-based rejection of higher prices. The trend across timeframes is consistently bearish, with the strongest conviction in the lower timeframes (15m and 30m showing solid to very strong trends) and a forming bearish trend on the 1H, 2H, and 4H charts. This suggests that selling pressure is building and is likely to persist as the higher timeframes catch up.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.60300, which should now act as a ceiling, and the nearest support at 156.95100, which is the first major downside target. A break below support would confirm the bearish momentum, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the setup. The higher timeframe (1D) remains bullish but choppy, indicating that the bearish move is corrective within a larger uptrend. Traders should monitor price action relative to these levels and the strength of the trend scores for signs of continuation or reversal.

Catalysts

▼ Overwhelming confluence of breakdown signals (DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA, MA, MAMA PRICE, MIDPRICE, SMA 50) on the 4H chart.
▼ Consistent bearish trend across multiple timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h) with strong trend scores in the lower timeframes.
▼ Presence of candlestick and divergence signals adds to the bearish conviction.
▼ Very strong signal strength (95% probability) and 'very_strong' rating.

Risk Factors

▲ The 1D timeframe is still bullish, which could mean the bearish move is only a correction within a larger uptrend.
▲ The 8H and 12H timeframes show choppy/sideways action, indicating a lack of strong momentum at higher levels.
▲ If price reclaims the resistance at 158.60300, the breakdown signals would be invalidated, and the bearish thesis would weaken.
▲ Momentum could fade if the lower timeframe trends (15m/30m) weaken, as they are currently the strongest drivers.