USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 8× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-26 11:30 UTC 3 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result −0.12 %

Entry

157.312

Target

156.311 +0.64 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.251 −0.60 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 2,581 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,581 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

17 % at target avg +0.23 % 34 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.10 % 40 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 9 % at stop avg −0.36 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: HMA Break Down, EMA 200 Retreat Down, SMA 200 Retreat Down +2 more

Trend at entry: in 5 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 31,056 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

17:00TodayUSD7-Year Note Auction●●○Previous 5.085%in 10m
23:30TodayJPYUnemployment Rate●●○in 6h
23:30TodayJPYTokyo Core CPI y/y●●○Forecast 2.5%Previous 2.7%in 6h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 8× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 8× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (26 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC, updated 8× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	2.22
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.21
▲	HT TRENDMODE Mode to Trend	indicator	1.82
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.65
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.65
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▼	CTI OB Entry	indicator	1.37

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A fresh bearish push is firing on the 30M chart with overbought exits and a break below key moving averages.
Higher timeframes (2H–8H) are in solid downtrends, supporting the short-term sell signal.
Watch the 156.31100 support: a break could open the door to further downside.
Resistance is clustered at 157.35700, around the EMA/SMA 200, which is now acting as overhead supply.

The USD/JPY 30-minute signal stack is firmly bearish, with seven indicators aligning to reject higher prices. The simultaneous STOCHF KD Cross Down, WILLR OB Exit, and CTI OB Entry all point to a loss of upward momentum after an overbought stretch. Meanwhile, price retreating from both the EMA 200 and SMA 200 confirms that these dynamic levels are acting as resistance, and the HMA Break Down signals that the short-term trend has shifted lower. The HT TRENDMODE Mode to Trend flip reinforces that the bearish move is gaining structure.

Across higher timeframes, the bearish case strengthens: the 2H, 4H, and 8H charts are all in solid downtrends, while the 1D remains bearish albeit choppy. The lower timeframes (15M, 30M, 1H) are still bullish but weak, so the current bearish pullback may be the start of a larger trend resumption rather than a simple retracement. Immediate support sits at 156.31100, a break of which would likely accelerate the move; resistance is at 157.35700, capturing the EMA/SMA 200 zone and the recent high. The confluence of overbought exits, moving-average resistance, and bearish higher-timeframe trends gives this signal above-average confidence, but traders should watch the 15M and 30M bullish trends for any signs of a counter-trend bounce.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple overbought-exit indicators (STOCHF KD Cross Down, WILLR OB Exit, CTI OB Entry) agree that momentum is fading.
▼ Price rejecting both the EMA 200 and SMA 200 from below adds confluence that these dynamic levels are now resistance.
▼ Bearish trend scores strengthen on the 2H, 4H, and 8H charts, giving the signal a solid tailwind.
▼ The HMA Break Down signals a clear short-term trend change, aligning with the higher-timeframe downtrends.

Risk Factors

▲ The 15M, 30M, and 1H timeframes remain bullish, so a bounce could stall the downtrend in the near term.
▲ A sustained move back above the 157.35700 resistance would invalidate the bearish setup and signal a false breakout.
▲ Momentum may fade quickly if the pair reaches 156.31100 without a clean break, leading to sideways chop.
▲ The 30M trend is still labelled 'choppy/sideways', meaning the current bearish signal could be part of a larger range rather than a trending move.