USD/JPY – 12H – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-10-28 09:25 UTC 4 days ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.07 %

Entry

157.869

Target

156.376 +0.95 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.949 −0.68 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 9 candles (4.5 days), at the market price · now candle 4 of 9

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 50 of 100 forex 12h signals ended in profit · on average −0.01 % per trade 210 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 210 closed forex 12h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

19 % at target avg +0.70 % 31 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.43 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.50 % 17 % at stop avg −0.66 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MA Break Down, SMA 50 Break Down, HMA Retreat Down +1 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 33,308 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % – vs previous candle

WEAK Position

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (24.32)

model score 5.3 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 6 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

15:00TomorrowUSDFactory Orders m/m●●○Forecast 0.1%Previous 0.1%in 23h
15:00TomorrowUSDJOLTS Job Openings●●●Forecast 6.779MPrevious 7.079Min 23h
13:15November 4, 2026USDADP Nonfarm Employment Change●●●Forecast 64KPrevious 90Kin 1 day

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MA Break Down	indicator	2.82
▼	SMA 50 Break Down	indicator	2.48
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.64
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▲	BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Up	indicator	1.43
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.13
▲	Inverted Hammer	candlestick	0.95

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signals on the 12H chart suggest a potential sell-off in USD/JPY.
Key support at 156.376 is the immediate downside target; a break could open further declines.
Resistance at 158.949 is the critical level to watch—a move above would invalidate the bearish setup.
Mixed trend scores across timeframes indicate the market is not in a strong trend, so caution is advised.

The USD/JPY 12H chart has fired a cluster of bearish signals, including a STOCH KD Cross Down, MA Break Down, SMA 50 Break Down, and HMA Retreat Down, alongside bearish candlestick patterns (Inverted Hammer and Long Legged Doji). These signals indicate a loss of upward momentum and a shift toward selling pressure. The bearish alignment across the 15m, 30m, 1h, and 12h timeframes supports the downside bias, although the higher timeframes (2h and 8h) remain bullish, suggesting potential conflict.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.949 and the nearest support at 156.376. A break below support could accelerate the decline, while a move back above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. The mixed trend scores across timeframes (with choppy/sideways readings on 4h and 1d) imply that the move may be part of a larger consolidation rather than a strong trend reversal. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish indicators (STOCH, MA, SMA, HMA) align with bearish candlestick patterns, providing confluence.
▼ Bearish trend on the 12H and lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h) supports the downside bias.
▼ The proximity to resistance at 158.949 offers a clear invalidation level, enhancing the risk/reward profile.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (2h, 8h) are still bullish, which could counteract the bearish pressure.
▲ The 4H and 1D timeframes are choppy/sideways, indicating a lack of strong trend momentum.
▲ A move above the 158.949 resistance would invalidate the bearish signal and could trigger a rally.
▲ The Long Legged Doji and Inverted Hammer can also appear in consolidation phases, reducing their reliability.