AVAX/USDT – 4H – BUY

BUY 6× UPDATED

2026-10-30 16:00 UTC 1 day ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +5.85 %

Entry

8.4440

Target

9.1620 +8.50 %

closes in profit

Stop

8.1460 −3.53 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 8 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 55 of 100 crypto 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,844 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,844 closed crypto 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

32 % at target avg +2.64 % 23 % holding time ended, in profit avg +2.81 % 24 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −2.84 % 22 % at stop avg −3.73 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ADX Trend Strong, HMA Retreat Up, ZSCORE Extreme Low Exit +7 more

Trend at entry: in 0 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 32,437 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

67.1 % ↑ +20.6 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 100 % (9.02) ▼ Bearish 0 % (0.00)

model score 100.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 9 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in all 8 timeframes. Target hit 9.7 % vs 32.2 % on average · stopped out 44.6 % vs 22.7 % (crypto, 3,749 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AVAX/USDT

Full calendar

15:00TomorrowUSDISM Manufacturing Prices Paid●●●Forecast 80.7Previous 77.9in 1 day
15:00TomorrowUSDISM Manufacturing PMI●●●Forecast 54.7Previous 54.5in 1 day
15:00November 3, 2026USDJOLTS Job Openings●●●Forecast 6.779MPrevious 7.079Min 2 days

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (30 Oct 2026, 20:02 UTC, updated 6× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	ADX Trend Strong	indicator	1.80
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.62
▲	ZSCORE Extreme Low Exit	indicator	1.51
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.47
▲	HMA Direction Up	indicator	1.41
▲	CCI OS Exit	indicator	1.36
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.33
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.27
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	1.26
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.17
▲	TTM TREND Trend Up	indicator	0.91

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong 4H bullish signal (91%) but all timeframes are bearish—this is a counter-trend long.
Watch the 9.16200 resistance; a clear break above is needed to confirm bullish momentum.
No defined support level means the downside is open if the bounce fails.
Treat this as a tactical trade, not a trend change, until higher timeframes shift.

The 4H signal stack is overwhelmingly bullish, with a 91% probability and very strong strength, driven by a cluster of momentum and trend indicators: ADX Trend Strong, CCI OS Exit, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and multiple retreat/cross-up signals. However, the broader market context is firmly bearish across all timeframes, with the 8H and 12H showing solid downtrends. This creates a sharp conflict: the signal suggests a potential counter-trend bounce or reversal, but the higher-timeframe bearish pressure is significant. The nearest resistance at 9.16200 is the immediate hurdle; a break above it would be the first confirmation of bullish intent, while a failure to hold any bounce could see the bearish trend resume.

Given the bearish alignment on all timeframes, this buy signal is counter-trend. The probability and strength are high, but the lack of a defined support level (N/A) and the choppy/sideways action on lower timeframes (15m-2h) suggest that any bullish move may face strong overhead supply. The confluence of indicators on the 4H is notable, but traders should treat this as a tactical long within a larger downtrend, not a trend reversal. The invalidation level is effectively any failure to push above the resistance or a quick reversal back below the signal's origin; watch for a bearish cross on the 4H to negate the setup.

Catalysts

▲ High probability (91%) and very strong strength on the 4H signal.
▲ Multiple indicators firing together: ADX Trend Strong, CCI OS Exit, STOCHF KD Cross Up, and HMA Retreat Up.
▲ Potential for a bullish correction after oversold conditions (CCI OS Exit) and a trend-strength reading (ADX).

Risk Factors

▼ All timeframes (15m to 1D) are bearish; the 8H and 12H show solid downtrends that could override a 4H bounce.
▼ No nearby support level means a failed bounce could lead to a sharp continuation lower.
▼ Lower timeframes are choppy/sideways, indicating weak momentum that may not sustain a rally.
▼ A bearish cross on the 4H or a rejection at resistance would invalidate the signal.