USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL Counter-trend 6× UPDATED

2026-11-11 19:00 UTC 10 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.00 %

Entry

159.864

Target

157.669 +1.37 %

closes in profit

Stop

161.378 −0.95 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price · now candle 10 of 15

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,754 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,754 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.37 % 35 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.16 % 37 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.18 % 12 % at stop avg −0.40 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ZSCORE Extreme High Exit, BOP Zero Cross Down, AO Saucer Bearish +2 more

Trend at entry: in 1 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,768 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +25.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +2% Intraday

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (8.50)

model score 100.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 11 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 10.1 % vs 18.6 % on average · stopped out 16.9 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 615 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 6h
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 6h
15:00TodayUSDFed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speech●●○in 8h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 4× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 4× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (11 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC, updated 6× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up	indicator	1.56
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.39
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.21
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.12
▼	AO Saucer Bearish	indicator	1.12
▼	T3 Retreat Down	indicator	0.91
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	0.89

Trend Context

15M

UPVery strong trend

30M

UPVery strong trend

UPSolid trend

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signals on 1H suggest a short-term pullback, but the higher-timeframe trend is still bullish.
Watch the 157.66900 support level; a break below it would confirm bearish momentum.
The ZSCORE Extreme High Exit indicates the pair is overextended and may correct.
Conflicting timeframes (bullish lower, choppy higher) call for cautious short positioning.

The 1H USD/JPY chart has fired a cluster of bearish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, T3 Retreat Down, AO Saucer Bearish, HMA Retreat Down, and a Long Legged Doji, alongside a ZSCORE Extreme High Exit. These signals collectively indicate that upside momentum is stalling and a short-term pullback is likely. The Long Legged Doji reflects indecision near highs, while the AO and HMA retreats confirm fading bullish pressure. The ZSCORE Extreme High Exit suggests the pair is overextended and due for a mean reversion.

However, the broader trend remains firmly bullish across the 15m to 2H timeframes, with very strong trend scores (4/5). The 4H and higher timeframes are choppy or sideways, with the daily trend bearish. This creates a mixed backdrop: the immediate momentum is turning lower, but the higher-timeframe trend is not yet bearish. Key support sits at 157.66900, a level that could act as a pivot; a break below it would strengthen the bearish case, while a hold could see the pair resume its uptrend.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish indicators (BOP, T3, AO, HMA) align on the 1H timeframe.
▼ ZSCORE Extreme High Exit signals overbought conditions and potential mean reversion.
▼ Long Legged Doji candlestick pattern suggests exhaustion of the upside move.
▼ Nearest support at 157.66900 provides a clear downside target if broken.

Risk Factors

▲ Strong bullish trend on lower timeframes (15m-2H) could overpower the bearish signals.
▲ A hold above 157.66900 support would invalidate the bearish setup and may lead to a resumption of the uptrend.
▲ Higher timeframes (4H and above) are choppy/sideways, offering no clear bearish confirmation.
▲ The daily trend is bearish but weak, so the sell signal may only result in a shallow pullback rather than a reversal.