USD/JPY – 30M – BUY

BUY Counter-trend 5× UPDATED

2026-11-12 01:00 UTC 5 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.13 %

Entry

159.647

Target

159.935 +0.18 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.665 −0.62 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 10 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 3,411 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 3,411 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

18 % at target avg +0.24 % 33 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 39 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.13 % 10 % at stop avg −0.35 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: SMA 50 Retreat Up, EMA 50 Retreat Up, STOCHF KD Cross Up +6 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,768 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +25.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +6% Scalping

▲ Bullish 100 % (42.47) ▼ Bearish 0 % (0.00)

model score 100.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 11 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 6h
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 6h
15:00TodayUSDFed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speech●●○in 8h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 4× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 4× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (12 Nov 2026, 01:30 UTC, updated 5× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	SMA 50 Retreat Up	indicator	2.22
▲	EMA 50 Retreat Up	indicator	2.20
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.82
▲	DX Trend Strong	indicator	1.68
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.67
▲	CMO Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.66
▲	RSI Midline Cross Up	indicator	1.66
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.59
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.40
▲	Bullish Engulfing	candlestick	1.15
▲	Hammer	candlestick	1.06

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNSolid trend

UPVery strong trend

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A cluster of bullish momentum indicators fired on the 30-minute chart, suggesting a strong short-term buy signal.
Higher timeframes (1h, 2h) are bullish, supporting the upside, but the 15m and 30m are still bearish, so confirmation is needed.
Watch the nearest resistance at 159.938; a break above it would confirm the bullish move.
The nearest support at 158.665 is the invalidation level; a drop below it would negate the signal.

The USD/JPY 30-minute signal has fired a cluster of bullish momentum indicators, including BOP Zero Cross Up, CMO Zero Cross Up, RSI Midline Cross Up, and STOCHF KD Cross Up, alongside EMA 50 and SMA 50 Retreat Up signals. These together point to a strong short-term upside push, reinforced by a very strong signal strength (87% probability). The DX Trend Strong signal confirms the presence of a robust trend, while the HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down suggests a potential shift in the higher timeframe cycle that may align with the bullish momentum.

Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bullish. The 1-hour and 2-hour charts show solid to very strong bullish trends, providing a supportive backdrop for the 30-minute buy signal. However, the 15-minute and 30-minute timeframes are still bearish, indicating that the immediate trend has not yet turned. The nearest resistance at 159.938 is the key upside target; a break above it would confirm the bullish reversal and open the door for further gains. Conversely, the nearest support at 158.665 is the critical level to watch—if price falls below this, the bullish signal would be invalidated.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple momentum oscillators (BOP, CMO, RSI, STOCHF) all crossed above their midlines, indicating strong buying pressure.
▲ EMA 50 and SMA 50 retreat up signals suggest the moving averages are turning higher, aligning with the bullish momentum.
▲ The 1-hour and 2-hour trends are bullish and strong, providing a higher timeframe tailwind.
▲ The very strong signal strength (87%) and high probability increase confidence in the setup.

Risk Factors

▼ The 15-minute and 30-minute trends are still bearish, which could cap the upside or lead to a pullback before the bullish move develops.
▼ The nearest resistance at 159.938 is a key barrier; failure to break it could lead to a reversal.
▼ If price falls below the nearest support at 158.665, the bullish signal would be invalidated.
▼ The HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down may indicate a cycle shift, but its impact on the immediate trend is uncertain.