Heads-up: USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m came in worse than expected for USD (9 h ago), supports BTC.
Bitcoin's outlook is bearish: an unusually large fall has broken the $70,000 mark and the 200-day moving average, with ETF outflows and cascading long liquidations adding pressure. Both the chart picture and the news flow point down.
21 of 300 straight from the issuer or regulator
The 3 most recent active signals are bullish (since 13.11.). The signal situation shown, the trend across all timeframes, is still bearish and may be turning.
8 of 8 timeframes down
8 active signals (5 long / 3 short), strongest: 4H at 100 %
Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 300 news items.
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on BTCUSDT.
The downtrend is consistent from the hourly to the daily chart, with several moving-average breakdowns and bearish divergences confirming it. Bounce attempts appear only on the shortest charts and look corrective. The daily trend is just turning, so the downtrend is not yet fully established.
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One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
The 3 most recent active signals are bullish (since 13.11.).
Last 72 hours
AI-generated · as of November 13, 2026
Bitcoin has dropped hard and fast: the fall over the past day, week and month is far larger than normal for the largest cryptocurrency, and little in the news flow contradicts the direction. The price lost $70,000 early on Friday, its lowest since August, and then slipped under the 200-day moving average after four days of failed defences.
Selling fed itself through liquidations: over $1.6 billion of futures positions were wiped out within a day, almost nine in ten of them longs. Demand is draining too — spot ETF outflows have run for a fifth straight session, roughly $2 billion from BlackRock's fund alone since late October, and stablecoin supply has shrunk. The macro backdrop adds weight: markets now price a December Fed rate hike as near certain, and a dollar index above 103 keeps pressure on the asset. The charts agree. Trend readings are bearish from the 15-minute to the daily chart, with the daily only just turning, and several momentum measures confirm continuation rather than exhaustion. That said, the move is stretched: daily momentum gauges are oversold, price is testing the 200-week moving average, which marked bottoms in past cycles, and the big liquidation flushes can exhaust sellers. A softer-than-expected US producer price report just lifted BTC slightly. The technical tension sits on the shortest charts, where bounce signals have fired against the dominant trend. Watch 74811.45: rejection keeps the downtrend intact, a sustained break above would challenge it. Upcoming US retail sales and other releases could move Fed expectations either way.
The drop below $70,000 was the lowest since August and broke the 200-day moving average. It was driven by near-certain market pricing of a December Fed rate hike, a firm dollar above 103, and $1.64 billion of liquidations in a day, nearly nine in ten of them longs. Persistent ETF outflows and shrinking stablecoin supply added to the pressure.
A sustained break above resistance at 74811.45 would weaken the bearish case, and a rise above $75,000 would invalidate it outright. Signs of a floor include the oversold daily momentum readings, the 200-week moving average being tested — a level that marked bottoms in past cycles — and easing ETF outflows. A softer dollar on weak US data would also help.
US retail sales figures due shortly are the main scheduled test, alongside jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in the coming days. Stronger-than-expected numbers would support the dollar and add pressure on BTC; weaker ones could ease it. The Fed's December meeting, where a hike is priced near certain, is the bigger decision behind the selloff.
BTC has been the subject of 3146 signals across 3146 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bullish (39%).
Breakdown: 1239 bullish, 1161 bearish, 746 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Risk-off sentiment (4×), Institutional adoption narrative reinforced (2×), ETF outflows (2×). Most-cited risk factors: Regulatory crackdowns on crypto (5×), Broader crypto market volatility (5×), Regulatory crackdown on crypto (5×).
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