💱 Forex · UK

GBP/USD Pound-dollar · Forecast & Analysis

Forex UK

1.3224

-0.38 %

7 D

Updated 9 min ago

Overall assessment · Trend + news, checked against price

▼ Bearish medium Data coverage good

Price -0.38 % 24h · -1.83 % 7d · +0.12 % 30dTrend ▼ 8 of 8 timeframesNews ▬ 638 reports, latest 12.11.

Heads-up: USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m are due in 19 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around them.

GBP/USD stays under pressure after hot US inflation and hawkish Fed talk drove the dollar to a yearly high, leaving Cable at a four-week low. Charts lean bearish across the intraday spans; a firmer UK GDP print only briefly lifted the pair.

News situation · 638 items / 30 D

▬ Neutral weak Data coverage good

4.7 Impact / 10

By source type

News 567 Analyst 67 Release 3 Earnings 1

4 of 638 straight from the issuer or regulator

Technicals · trend now

▼ Bearish strong Data coverage good

8 of 8 timeframes down

8 active signals (3 long / 5 short), strongest: 30M at 100 %

AI-generated · as of November 12, 2026

24 h

-0.38 %

Active signals

8 (3↑ / 5↓)

Technicals

Bearish

News, 30 days

Neutral

Chart

GBP/USD chart by timeframe

Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.

Loading chart

Outlook

Outlook for British Pound / US Dollar

Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.

Next 7 days · 4h–8h trend and news

▼ Bearish medium

Data coverage good

60 % technicals 40 % news

Next 4 weeks · 12h–1d trend and news

▬ Neutral weak

Data coverage good

30 % technicals 70 % news

Next 3 months · news of the last 30 days only

▬ Neutral weak

Data coverage good

No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 638 news items.

What drives it

Hot October US core CPI and hawkish Fed rhetoric, with a possible 50 bp December hike now partly priced
The dollar index sits at a fresh yearly high near 103, overwhelming upbeat UK growth data
GBP/USD broke below 1.3300 to a four-week low, with strong bearish signal clusters on the 1-hour and 2-hour charts
The US CPI release coincided with a fall of more than one percent in the pair

What argues against it

RSI near 26 is deeply oversold, a classic setup for short-covering bounces
Bullish reversal patterns have fired on the 4-hour and 12-hour charts
UK quarterly GDP beat expectations and lifted the pair modestly after the release
Choppy, sideways higher timeframes limit how far the decline can run

What would change the picture

A break above 1.33557 resistance would weaken the bearish case, with 1.34594 the next barrier
Losing 1.32731 support would confirm continuation lower
A clearly softer US PPI print than expected could cool Fed hike pricing and ease pressure on the pound

Coming up

Tomorrow, 13:30 US: Producer prices · expected 0.4%, previous 0.7%
November 17, 2026, 07:00 UK: Jobless claims, Labour market report · expected 15.8K, previous 6.7K
November 17, 2026, 13:30 US: Retail sales · expected 0.7%, previous 0.9%

All dates ↓ All times UTC.

Typical move

7 days: typically ±0.9%, strong from ±1.9%, actual −1.8%

30 days: typically ±2.0%, strong from ±3.9%, actual +0.1%

Economic data for GBP/USD

Full calendar

Recently released

17:00TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Actual 4.657MForecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865MGBPUSD after 60 min: −0.09%since release: −0.09%1 h ago
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●GBPUSD after 60 min: +0.08%since release: −0.24%4 h ago
07:00TodayGBPGDP y/y●●●Forecast 1.3%Previous 1.4%GBPUSD after 60 min: +0.12%since release: −0.21%11 h ago
07:00TodayGBPGDP q/q●●●Forecast 0.8%Previous 0.5%GBPUSD after 60 min: +0.12%since release: −0.21%11 h ago
07:00TodayGBPGDP m/m●●●Forecast 0.1%Previous 0.1%GBPUSD after 60 min: +0.12%since release: −0.21%11 h ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCPI m/m●●●Actual 0.4%Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%worse than expected for USDsupports GBP/USDGBPUSD after 60 min: −0.23%since release: −1.47%2 days ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Actual 0.2%Previous 0.4%worse than the previous value for USDsupports GBP/USDGBPUSD after 60 min: −0.23%since release: −1.47%2 days ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCore CPI●●●Actual 339.900Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896better than expected for USDweighs on GBP/USDGBPUSD after 60 min: −0.23%since release: −1.47%2 days ago

Coming up

13:30TomorrowUSDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 19h
13:30TomorrowUSDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 19h
07:00November 17, 2026GBPClaimant Count Change●●●Forecast 15.8KPrevious 6.7Kin 4 days
07:00November 17, 2026GBPUnemployment Rate●●●Forecast 4.8%Previous 4.9%in 4 days
13:30November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 4 days
13:30November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 4 days
07:00November 18, 2026GBPCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.1%Previous 0.5%in 5 days
07:00November 18, 2026GBPCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.4%Previous 2.6%in 5 days

All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on GBPUSD.

Technicals

Trend across all eight timeframes

15M Scalping ▼ Bearish Solid trend ADX 32.2

30M Scalping ▼ Bearish Solid trend ADX 39.9

1H Intraday ▼ Bearish Very strong trend ADX 53.7

2H Intraday ▼ Bearish Very strong trend ADX 53.5

4H Swing ▼ Bearish Solid trend ADX 40.4

8H Swing ▼ Bearish Trend forming ADX 29.0

12H Position ▼ Bearish Trend forming ADX 22.4

1D Position ▼ Bearish Trend forming ADX 25.6

Bearish trends dominate from the 15-minute to the 4-hour chart, reinforced by a descending triangle and a bear flag. The 12-hour and daily charts are sideways, so the decline reads as a strong leg within an unsettled larger picture.

By trading style

What this means for your trading style

Scalping 15m · 30m

▼ Strongly bearish strong Data coverage good

PRO

66 %

historical hit rate · 65 comparable setups

The text for this card no longer matches its rating, so it is hidden.

Double Bottom Falling Wedge EMA Break Up

Intraday 1h · 2h

▼ Strongly bearish strong Data coverage good

PRO

62 %

historical hit rate · 39 comparable setups

A strong bearish cluster on the 1-hour and 2-hour charts makes intraday the most clearly directional view, though bounces are possible.

Trendline Break Down Bear Flag EMA Retreat Down

Swing 4h · 8h

▼ Bearish medium Data coverage good

PRO

65 %

historical hit rate · 23 comparable setups

The 4-hour and 8-hour picture is bearish despite a bullish reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart, which reads as counter-trend.

Position 12h · 1d

▬ Neutral weak Data coverage good

PRO

—

too few comparable cases (0) for a reliable rate

The 12-hour and daily charts are sideways rather than trending, so the larger picture offers no settled direction yet.

Signal history

Both worlds over time

One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.

30 days ago today

Technicals (trend of the day) News signal Size: news = reports that day, technicals = timeframes with data

Active signals

8 active signals for GBP/USD

Last 72 hours

Signal GBP/USD · 30M · BUY 100% VERY STRONG

▲ 100% ▼ 0%

UPDATED Scalping Premium Counter-trend Forecast 56%

Double Bottom Falling Wedge EMA Break Up RSI Regular Bull Div

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-12 09:00 (8 hours ago) View Signal →

Signal GBP/USD · 30M · BUY 100% VERY STRONG

▲ 100% ▼ 0%

UPDATED Scalping Premium Counter-trend Forecast 56%

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-12 00:30 (17 hours ago) View Signal →

Signal GBP/USD · 1H · BUY 100% VERY STRONG

▲ 100% ▼ 0%

UPDATED Intraday Premium Counter-trend Forecast 57%

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-11 15:00 (1 day ago) View Signal →

Signal GBP/USD · 30M · SELL 99% VERY STRONG

▲ 1% ▼ 99%

UPDATED Scalping Premium With the trend Forecast 56%

SAR Flip Bearish

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-12 12:00 (5 hours ago) View Signal →

Signal GBP/USD · 1H · SELL 98% VERY STRONG

▲ 2% ▼ 98%

UPDATED Intraday Premium With the trend Forecast 57%

Trendline Break Down Bear Flag EMA Retreat Down SAR Flip Bearish

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-11 08:00 (1 day ago) View Signal →

Signal GBP/USD · 1H · SELL 98% VERY STRONG

▲ 2% ▼ 98%

UPDATED Intraday Premium With the trend Forecast 57%

Descending Triangle EMA Retreat Down

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-11 16:00 (1 day ago) View Signal →

Signal GBP/USD · 2H · SELL 97% VERY STRONG

▲ 3% ▼ 97%

UPDATED Intraday Premium With the trend Forecast 55%

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-11 16:00 (1 day ago) View Signal →

Signal GBP/USD · 1H · SELL 97% VERY STRONG

▲ 3% ▼ 97%

NEW Intraday Premium With the trend Forecast 57%

Descending Triangle EMA Retreat Down

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-12 17:00 (9 minutes ago) View Signal →

News, 30 days

What is being reported about GBP/USD

News Bearish Impact 5/10

GBP/USD Slips to 1.3224 as Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Overshadows UK Growth

GBP/USD has fallen for a third straight day to 1.3224 (-0.38%) as hawkish Fed commentary from Hammack and Goolsbee outweighs in-line UK Q3 GDP growth …

November 12, 2026

News Bullish Impact 3/10

UK GDP Maintains Q3 Growth Momentum Driven by Services Sector

Stronger UK GDP supports sterling against the dollar, but the dollar's own direction depends on US factors not covered here. The services-led, consume…

November 12, 2026

News Bearish Impact 5/10

GBP/USD Stalls at 1.3260 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Outweigh UK GDP Growth

Despite UK Q3 GDP rebounding 0.7% and September industrial output beating forecasts at 3.1% Y-o-Y, GBP/USD only edged up to 1.3260 from lows near 1.32…

November 12, 2026

News Bearish Impact 5/10

US Dollar Index Hits 19-Month High Above 103.00 as Fed Hike Bets Surge

GBP/USD trades at its lowest level in nearly a month at around 1.3250, down more than 1% over a two-day slide, despite upbeat UK data: Q3 GDP grew 1.9…

November 12, 2026

News Bearish Impact 6/10

GBP/USD Slips to 1.3200s as USD Hits Highest Level Since April 2025

Cable has broken below 1.3300 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, trading at a fresh four-week low in the mid-1.3200s. Hotter-than-expected US inflat…

November 12, 2026

News Neutral Impact 3/10

UK Q3 GDP Forecast at 0.7% as Markets Eye Potential BoE December Rate Hike

The article says GBP/USD risk is skewed to the upside into Thursday's Q3 GDP print, as a strong reading would boost odds of another BoE hike. However,…

November 12, 2026

General news on GBP and USD

These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on GBP/USD; in the news verdict they count half.

USD in general GBP/USD: Neutral Impact 1/10

Federal Reserve Sets 2027 FOMC Meeting Schedule Across 9 Dates

The Federal Reserve only published a revised tentative calendar of FOMC meeting dates for 2027, with no change to monetary policy, rates or balance-sh…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Neutral

USD in general GBP/USD: Bearish Impact 6/10

AUD/USD Slides to 0.6808 as Fed Tightening Bets Drive DXY to 103.19 High

The DXY climbed to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.19 as traders fully price a December Fed hike of 25 bps, with a small chance of 50 bps, and expect…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

USD in general GBP/USD: Bearish Impact 5/10

Fed's Goolsbee Warns of Overheating Economy as USD Rallies 0.59% Against AUD

Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is 'well above target' and that Tuesday's hot CPI 'wasn't a one-off', warning the economy is overheating. That reduces e…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

USD in general GBP/USD: Bearish Impact 6/10

Silver Slumps 3.04% as US Dollar Hits Highest Level Since April 2025

The Dollar Index sits near 103.10, its highest level since April 2025, after October core CPI rose 0.3% MoM against a 0.2% forecast and headline added…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

GBP in general GBP/USD: Neutral Impact 1/10

UK Reaffirms 2050 Net Zero Commitment at COP31 Climate Summit in Antalya

Prime Minister Andy Burnham reiterated at COP31 in Antalya that the UK remains committed to net zero by 2050 and will back the summit's 35% electrific…

November 12, 2026 · for GBP: Neutral

USD in general GBP/USD: Bearish Impact 5/10

Cleveland Fed's Hammack Signals Need for Higher Rates to Curb Inflation

Cleveland Fed President Hammack said inflation is moving in the wrong direction and the Fed needs to move rates higher to reach restrictive policy, fa…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

Full analysis

In-depth analysis of British Pound / US Dollar

AI-generated · as of November 12, 2026

The bearish call rests on two pillars agreeing. On the charts, sterling has fallen through 1.3300 to its lowest in about a month, and the strongest signal clusters sit on the one- and two-hour charts, where a descending triangle, a bear flag and a string of moving-average retreats all confirm selling pressure.

Read full analysis

On the fundamentals, the hot October US CPI print, with core at 0.3% against 0.2% expected, plus Waller's openness to a half-point December hike, has repriced Fed expectations sharply and pushed the dollar index to a yearly high near 103. The measured reaction to that CPI was a fall of more than one percent for the pair, and the drop continued through the past day and week. Today's UK GDP offered a partial counterweight: the quarterly figure beat expectations and pound-dollar ticked up about 0.12% after the release, though the monthly number merely matched forecasts. That is why the broader news read stays neutral rather than bearish. The main tension is the counter-trend bounce machinery: RSI near 26 is deeply oversold, and bullish reversal patterns have fired on the 4-hour and 12-hour charts. That argues for pauses, not for a reversal, while the higher timeframes remain unsettled. Event risk is dense from here: US jobless claims shortly, producer prices in about a day, then UK labour data and US retail sales. A US PPI clearly softer than forecast would cool the hawkish repricing and is the most obvious threat to the current bearish balance.

Frequently asked questions about British Pound / US Dollar

Why is the pair falling despite decent UK data?

The move is being driven from the dollar side: hotter US inflation lifted expectations of a Fed hike, possibly a half-point move in December, pushing the dollar to a yearly high. Upbeat UK GDP and production figures only cushioned the pound's losses, they did not offset the dollar's gains.

What does today's UK GDP release change?

The quarterly figure beat expectations and the pair rose modestly right after the release, while the monthly number matched forecasts. It supports the pound at the margin but has not reversed the slide so far. US producer prices, due shortly, now matter more for the dollar side of the rate story.

The charts say bearish, so why the neutral longer view?

The downtrend is concentrated on the hourly and shorter charts. The 12-hour and daily pictures are choppy and sideways, and a cluster of bullish reversal signals has fired there. Until those timeframes pick a direction, the longer view stays neutral even as the near-term bias points down.

Asset Snapshot

📝 Overview Generated automatically

GBP/USD has been the subject of 379 signals across 379 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (42%).

Breakdown: 153 bullish, 158 bearish, 68 neutral.

Most-cited catalysts: Broad-based weakness in the US dollar (4×), UK political uncertainty (2×), Bank of England interest rate decision (2×). Most-cited risk factors: Unexpected BoE hawkishness (2×), Bank of England hawkish surprise (2×), Unexpected strengthening of the US Dollar (2×).

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