iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m are due in 18 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around them.
News situation · 0 items / 30 D
Economic data for TLT
Full calendarRecently released
- TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Actual 4.657MForecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865M
- TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%
- November 10, 2026USDCPI●●●Actual 337.476Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298
- November 10, 2026USDCPI m/m●●●Actual 0.4%Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Actual 0.2%Previous 0.4%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI●●●Actual 339.900Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%
Coming up
- TomorrowUSDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 18h
- TomorrowUSDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 18h
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 4 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 4 days
- November 18, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Forecast -0.309MPrevious 4.657Min 5 days
- November 19, 2026USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index●●●Forecast 32.2Previous 20.9in 6 days
- November 19, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 6 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value.
Both worlds over time
Technical and news signals of the last 90 days on one timeline.
TLT fundamental outlook
From news analysis — different time windows than the trading horizons above · as of 28.09.2026
- 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, pushing TLT down to $80.71.
- The Treasury's $6B buyback failed to stem yield rises, with the 10-year climbing to 4.85% despite the operation.
- Trump's proposed $1.23 trillion dividend pledge adds fiscal pressure, likely keeping yields elevated.
- Bank of America declared a 'generational entry point' for U.S. bonds, citing 100-year lows in long-term Treasury valuations.
- The Fed's 25bp hike triggered a short-term rally in TLT (+1.11%), but the effect faded quickly.
- Oil prices above $100 and firm PPI data reinforce inflation fears, supporting higher yields.
- Vanguard's BondBuilder launch highlights growing interest in defined-maturity ETFs, potentially diverting flows from TLT.
TLT has been under significant pressure as Treasury yields surged to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year yield breaking above 5% for the first time since 2007, dragging TLT to $80.71. The catalyst was a combination of stubborn inflation (oil above $100, firm PPI), a smaller-than-expected $6B Treasury buyback that failed to calm markets, and fiscal concerns from Trump's proposed $1.23 trillion dividend pledge. The Fed's 25bp hike initially sparked a short-term rally (+1.11%), but the broader trend remains bearish as structural competition for capital and rising real yields persist. However, a contrarian 'generational entry point' view from Bank of America, citing 100-year lows in long-term Treasury valuations, offers a potential long-term floor.
45 days ago · Based on 15 signals
📝 Overview Generated automatically
TLT has been the subject of 78 signals across 78 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (67%).
Breakdown: 24 bullish, 52 bearish, 2 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Duration risk exposure to rising yields (1×), Inflation-driven bond sell-off (1×), Inflation pressures undermining sovereign bond attractiveness (1×). Most-cited risk factors: Sudden risk-off rally boosts bonds (1×), Fed yield curve control caps long yields (1×), Safe-haven demand in risk-off events supporting Treasuries (1×).
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