USD/KRW US Dollar / South Korean Won · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: USD Core CPI, Core CPI m/m came in better than expected for USD (47 h ago), supports USD/KRW.
Heads-up: USD CPI, CPI m/m came in worse than expected for USD (47 h ago), weighs on USD/KRW.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI n.s.a. m/m came in worse than the previous value for USD (47 h ago), weighs on USD/KRW.
Heads-up: high-impact releases ahead: USD Initial Jobless Claims (in 38 min), USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (in 4 h). The outlook can shift noticeably around them.
USD/KRW leans bullish on the fundamental side, with no price history available to add a technical read. Hot US inflation and hawkish Fed repricing lift the dollar, while the won also suffers as AI-led equity weakness pressures Korea.
News situation · 451 items / 30 D
2 of 451 straight from the issuer or regulator
Outlook for US Dollar / South Korean Won
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: there is no price data for this asset. Based on 451 news items.
What drives it
- Hot US October inflation and hawkish Fed comments sharply repriced December rate expectations, lifting dollar demand across the board.
- TD Securities argues the won's high correlation to US-versus-global equities makes it vulnerable while the AI-led equity rout persists…
- Sustained foreign buying of US dollar futures has kept the pair firm despite strength in the KOSPI.
What argues against it
- Societe Generale flags 1349/1353, the range top and 50-day average, as key resistance, and no confirmed breakout has come yet.
- OCBC forecasts the pair declining to 1320 by end-2026, implying moderate won appreciation against the dollar.
- Markets already assign high odds to a December Fed hike, so little room remains for further dollar gains from rate repricing alone.
- Several of yesterday's US inflation readings came in below expectations, so the bullish case rests mainly on core figures and Fed…
What would change the picture
- The reaction at the 1349/1353 resistance zone should set direction: a decisive break or a clear rejection would resolve the narrow base.
- US PPI and retail sales are due shortly; firmer-than-expected figures would reinforce hike expectations, softer ones could unwind the…
- A stabilisation in global equities would remove the equity-rotation driver behind recent won weakness.
Coming up
- US: Jobless claims
- US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change · expected -2.489M, previous -0.865M
- US: Producer prices · expected 0.4%, previous 0.7%
Economic data for USD/KRW
Full calendarRecently released
- November 10, 2026USDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%
- November 10, 2026USDCPI●●●Actual 337.476Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298
- November 10, 2026USDCPI m/m●●●Actual 0.4%Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Actual 0.2%Previous 0.4%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI●●●Actual 339.900Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%
Coming up
- TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 38m
- TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 38m
- TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Forecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865Min 4h
- TomorrowUSDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 1 day
- TomorrowUSDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 1 day
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 5 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 5 days
- November 18, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●in 6 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Height = net direction of the day.
What is being reported about USD/KRW
General news on USD and KRW
These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on USD/KRW; in the news verdict they count half.
Frequently asked questions about US Dollar / South Korean Won
Why is the won so sensitive to the AI equity story?
The Korean won shows the highest positive correlation to the ratio of US equities versus the rest of the world, according to TD Securities. When money rotates out of the AI build-out theme and global equities weaken, the won tends to suffer more than most currencies, which is why TD sees scope for USD/KRW to retrace toward 1400 if the rout continues.
What did the latest US inflation release mean for the dollar?
The picture was mixed. Core inflation came in above forecasts and Fed officials, including Waller, flagged a possible half-point December hike, sending rate expectations sharply higher and lifting the dollar. But the headline monthly reading and the index level were softer than expected, so part of the release argued against the move.
Which levels matter on USD/KRW right now?
Societe Generale marks 1349/1353 as the key resistance, combining the range top with the 50-day moving average, after an interim low near 1320. A decisive move through that zone would set direction. Analyst views bracket the range too: OCBC sees 1320 by end-2026, while TD Securities cites 1400 as a possible retracement target.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
USD/KRW has been the subject of 50 signals across 50 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (58%).
Breakdown: 15 bullish, 29 bearish, 6 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Launch of 24-hour won trading (2×), Hawkish BOK board member flags inflation and housing risks (1×), Markets increase bets on a 25bps rate hike at the next meeting (1×). Most-cited risk factors: Bank of Korea intervention (2×), Dollar strength could overwhelm localized hawkishness (1×), Intervention by Korean authorities to weaken the won (1×).
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