Heads-up: USD Core CPI, Core CPI m/m came in better than expected for USD (41 h ago), supports USD/JPY.
Heads-up: USD CPI, CPI m/m came in worse than expected for USD (41 h ago), weighs on USD/JPY.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI n.s.a. m/m came in worse than the previous value for USD (41 h ago), weighs on USD/JPY.
Heads-up: high-impact releases ahead: USD Initial Jobless Claims (in 6 h), USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (in 10 h). The outlook can shift noticeably around them.
USD/JPY is bullish: a hot US CPI print, hawkish Fed talk and strong intraday and swing signals lifted the pair to a ten-week high with an unusually large rise in the past day. Intervention risk near 160 keeps the four-week view neutral.
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Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 574 news items.
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on USDJPY.
Fresh signals from the 30-minute to the daily chart point up, led by a dense 2-hour cluster plus trendline and moving-average breaks on the swing chart. Older bearish signals earlier in the week have been overtaken. Trend strength is still choppy on several timeframes, so follow-through is not assured.
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One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
Last 72 hours
These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on USD/JPY; in the news verdict they count half.
AI-generated · as of November 12, 2026
The picture for the dollar-yen is bullish, driven from two sides at once. On the news side, October US core inflation came in hotter than forecast and Fed speakers, including Waller, have floated a larger December hike; markets have responded by pricing a high chance of further tightening, and the gap between US and Japanese rates stays wide.
The core CPI release was supportive for the pair and coincided with a measurable jump in the hours after it. On the charts, the freshest signals across the intraday and swing timeframes point up together, including a trendline break and a break above the 200-period average on the 8-hour chart, and price has risen unusually fast in the past day to a ten-week high. The fundamental side still nets out neutral, because the yen side carries real counterweights: Japanese officials have warned against speculative moves as the pair nears 160, and Bank of Japan policymakers are urging faster hikes. That tension is why the coming week reads bullish while the four-week view is neutral. Event risk is dense: US jobless claims and PPI arrive shortly, retail sales follow in the coming days alongside Japanese GDP, and the December Fed decision looms. The key markers are the 158.949 resistance, a break of which would confirm the move, and 156.962 support, whose loss would negate the fresh bullish signals.
October core US inflation came in above forecasts and Fed speakers, including Waller, raised the prospect of a bigger December hike. Traders responded by pricing a high chance of further tightening, new ten-year Treasuries sold at the highest yield since 2006, and the pair ran to a ten-week high near 159. The measured move after the CPI release was positive within the first hour.
Japanese authorities have warned they would act against speculative yen moves, and MUFG notes the approach of 160 invites intervention, as happened on July 30 with a record amount spent. A push into that zone could produce a sharp, abrupt reversal in the pair even if the trend and rate-gap arguments stay intact, which is a key reason the longer outlook stays cautious.
On the charts, a clear break above the 158.949 resistance would strengthen the case, while losing 156.962 support would invalidate the fresh bullish signals. On data, softer US PPI or retail sales could unwind part of the hawkish repricing, and stronger Japanese GDP would lift rate-hike expectations for the Bank of Japan, supporting the yen.
USD/JPY has been the subject of 494 signals across 494 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (56%).
Breakdown: 161 bullish, 275 bearish, 58 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: BOJ rate hike expectations (4×), Unwinding of yen-funded carry trades (3×), Broad-based weakness of the Japanese Yen against major currency peers (3×). Most-cited risk factors: Bank of Japan intervention to support the yen (5×), Potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Yen (5×), Bank of Japan intervention to weaken yen (4×).
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