USD/JPY

Yes, intervention threats remain active. A coordinated Japan-US yen-buying intervention failed to hold the pair below 150, and a US-Japan policy rift over the BOJ's role has undermined credibility. The pair is approaching the 160 psychological level, where Japanese officials have warned against rapid yen depreciation. Intervention is a risk to bullish positions, but its effectiveness is questioned without unified policy backing.

BOJ rate hike expectations are the main yen-bullish driver. Japan's government support for faster hikes, high producer prices, and weak US data have lifted the yen at times. A narrowing US-Japan rate differential reduces the carry trade appeal and pressures USD/JPY lower. However, traders currently expect only gradual BOJ tightening, which limits downside momentum while the wide rate gap persists.

The most recent active signals highlight support at 158.58100 and 159.17700, and resistance at 159.48100 and 159.54100. An older 2h signal also references resistance at 163.90400 and support at 156.67200. On the higher timeframe, 160 is a psychological and intervention-sensitive level. A break above 159.54100 would invalidate several bearish setups, while a move below 158.58100 would open further downside.

The bearish alignment reflects BOJ normalization, weak US data, and solid higher timeframe downtrends. But the pair remains elevated because the US-Japan interest rate differential is still wide, carry trades remain attractive, and intervention credibility is in question. Lower timeframe bullish signals indicate repeated counter-trend bounces. This tension means the bearish move is likely to be choppy and punctuated by sharp reversals near intervention thresholds.