USD/MXN US Dollar / Mexican Peso · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: high-impact releases ahead: USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (in 44 min), USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m (in 21 h). The outlook can shift noticeably around them.
USD/MXN stays favoured higher after Banxico's surprise cut to 6.25% narrowed the rate gap with the Fed, while a firm dollar on hot US inflation and Fed hike bets adds support. A divided Banxico board and rising Mexican inflation are the main brakes.
News situation · 466 items / 30 D
2 of 466 straight from the issuer or regulator
Outlook for US Dollar / Mexican Peso
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: there is no price data for this asset. Based on 466 news items.
What drives it
- Banxico's surprise 3-2 vote to cut its rate to 6.25% narrowed the spread to the Fed to 225bp, the lowest in decades, making peso carry…
- Money markets price an 88% chance of another Banxico cut by December, keeping a test of the 19.00 mark in play.
- Hot US inflation and hawkish Fed commentary have pushed the Dollar Index to its highest level since April 2025, lifting the pair.
What argues against it
- Banxico's governor says rates will stay at 6.25% for an extended period, and October Mexican inflation rose to 3.75%, arguing against…
- The 'one-time adjustment' label and the two dissenting deputy governors suggest limited follow-through easing from Banxico.
- A weak US jobs or payrolls print could unwind the hawkish repricing behind the dollar's strength.
What would change the picture
- A further Banxico cut in December, or signs the board is softening, would strengthen the upward case.
- Upcoming US PPI and retail sales figures could confirm or deflate the Fed hike bets driving the dollar.
- Banxico holding rates and pushing back on easing expectations would weigh on the pair.
Coming up
- US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change · expected -2.489M, previous -0.865M
- US: Producer prices · expected 0.4%, previous 0.7%
- US: Retail sales · expected 0.3%, previous 0.8%
Economic data for USD/MXN
Full calendarRecently released
- TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%
- November 10, 2026USDCPI●●●Actual 337.476Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298
- November 10, 2026USDCPI m/m●●●Actual 0.4%Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Actual 0.2%Previous 0.4%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI●●●Actual 339.900Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%
- November 10, 2026USDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%
Coming up
- TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Forecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865Min 44m
- TomorrowUSDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 21h
- TomorrowUSDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 21h
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 4 days
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 4 days
- November 18, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●in 5 days
- November 19, 2026USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index●●●Forecast 32.2Previous 20.9in 6 days
- November 19, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 6 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Height = net direction of the day.
What is being reported about USD/MXN
General news on USD and MXN
These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on USD/MXN; in the news verdict they count half.
Frequently asked questions about US Dollar / Mexican Peso
Why did the surprise Banxico rate cut support the pair?
The cut to 6.25% was unexpected, as markets looked for a hold. Lower peso yields narrow the gap to US rates, making the peso's carry less attractive relative to the dollar. That is bearish for the peso and pushes the pair up, though the board called it a one-time adjustment.
Does anything argue against further peso weakness?
Yes. The vote was only 3-2, with two deputy governors wanting to hold, and the governor has signalled rates stay at 6.25% for an extended period. Mexican October inflation also rose to 3.75%, above forecasts, which argues against further near-term cuts.
Which upcoming releases matter for this pair?
US PPI figures are due shortly, with retail sales following a few days later. Stronger-than-expected prints would reinforce Fed hike bets and the dollar's strength, lifting the pair. Weaker data could unwind the hawkish repricing that has driven the dollar to multi-month highs.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
USD/MXN has been the subject of 63 signals across 63 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bullish (51%).
Breakdown: 32 bullish, 26 bearish, 5 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Pemex leadership change amplifies fiscal burden fears (1×), Market concerns over sovereign credit risk spillover (1×), Slowing mid-May inflation print (1×). Most-cited risk factors: Mexican government announces a concrete Pemex rescue plan (1×), Oil price rally improving Pemex's cash flow and easing debt stress (1×), Core inflation re-accelerating (1×).
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