💱 Forex · Global

USD/CAD Dollar against the loonie · Forecast & Analysis

Forex Global

1.4257

+0.05 %

7 D

Updated 9 min ago

Overall assessment · Trend + news, checked against price

▲ Bullish medium Data coverage good ◆ Technicals and news point the same way

Price +0.05 % 24h · +2.02 % 7d · -0.17 % 30dTrend ▲ 5 of 8 timeframesNews ▲ 548 reports, latest 12.11.

Heads-up: USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m are due in 16 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around them.

USD/CAD stays bullish after an unusually large weekly rise, as hot US CPI cemented December Fed hike bets while falling crude weighs on the Loonie. The scalping picture is choppier: short-timeframe signals are mixed even as higher timeframes point up.

News situation · 548 items / 30 D

▲ Bullish weak Data coverage good

4.9 Impact / 10

By source type

News 497 Analyst 47 Release 3 Earnings 1

4 of 548 straight from the issuer or regulator

Technicals · trend now

▲ Bullish medium Data coverage good

5 of 8 timeframes up

8 active signals (6 long / 2 short), strongest: 30M at 100 %

AI-generated · as of November 12, 2026

24 h

+0.05 %

Active signals

8 (6↑ / 2↓)

Technicals

Bullish

News, 30 days

Bullish

Chart

USD/CAD chart by timeframe

Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.

Loading chart

Outlook

Outlook for US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.

Next 7 days · 4h–8h trend and news

▲ Bullish medium

Data coverage good

60 % technicals 40 % news

Next 4 weeks · 12h–1d trend and news

▲ Bullish medium

Data coverage good

30 % technicals 70 % news

Next 3 months · news of the last 30 days only

▲ Bullish weak

Data coverage good

No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 548 news items.

What drives it

Core US CPI beat forecasts two days ago, pushing a December Fed rate hike to near-certain pricing and lifting the dollar broadly.
Hawkish Fed commentary, led by Waller's openness to a larger December hike, keeps the dollar favoured against most peers.
Falling crude oil weighs on the oil-linked Loonie, removing a usual source of support for the Canadian dollar.
The Dollar Index sits at its highest since April 2025 above 103, a broad tailwind for the dollar against the loonie.

What argues against it

Momentum readings have edged toward overbought after the sharp run-up, raising the risk of consolidation.
Traders price a possible Bank of Canada hike after Canadian inflation came in at 3.1% in September.
The freshest half-hourly momentum signals turned down, hinting at a pullback within the larger uptrend.

What would change the picture

A break below support at 1.42352 would open the door to a deeper correction; holding it would reinforce the trend.
Softer US jobless claims or producer prices in the coming days could trim Fed hike bets and unwind part of the dollar's gains.
Canadian CPI due in a few days: hotter than expected would revive Bank of Canada hike pricing and press the pair.

Coming up

Tomorrow, 13:30 US: Producer prices · expected 0.4%, previous 0.7%
November 16, 2026, 13:30 Canada: Consumer prices · expected 3.1%, previous 3.1%
November 17, 2026, 13:30 US: Retail sales · expected 0.7%, previous 0.9%

All dates ↓ All times UTC.

Typical move

7 days: typically ±0.6%, strong from ±1.5%, actual +2.0%

30 days: typically ±1.3%, strong from ±3.0%, actual −0.2%

Economic data for USD/CAD

Full calendar

Recently released

17:00TodayUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Actual 4.657MForecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865MUSDCAD after 60 min: +0.04%since release: +0.03%4 h ago
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●USDCAD after 60 min: +0.08%since release: +0.17%7 h ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCore CPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%better than expected for USDsupports USD/CADUSDCAD after 60 min: +0.16%since release: +0.87%2 days ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCPI●●●Actual 337.476Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298worse than expected for USDweighs on USD/CADUSDCAD after 60 min: +0.16%since release: +0.87%2 days ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCPI m/m●●●Actual 0.4%Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%worse than expected for USDweighs on USD/CADUSDCAD after 60 min: +0.16%since release: +0.87%2 days ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Actual 0.2%Previous 0.4%worse than the previous value for USDweighs on USD/CADUSDCAD after 60 min: +0.16%since release: +0.87%2 days ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCore CPI●●●Actual 339.900Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896better than expected for USDsupports USD/CADUSDCAD after 60 min: +0.16%since release: +0.87%2 days ago
13:30November 10, 2026USDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%USDCAD after 60 min: +0.16%since release: +0.87%2 days ago

Coming up

13:30TomorrowUSDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 16h
13:30TomorrowUSDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 16h
13:30November 16, 2026CADCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.0%in 3 days
13:30November 16, 2026CADCPI y/y●●●Forecast 3.1%Previous 3.1%in 3 days
13:30November 16, 2026CADCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.0%Previous 0.1%in 3 days
13:30November 16, 2026CADCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.1%Previous 2.2%in 3 days
13:30November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 4 days
13:30November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 4 days

All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on USDCAD.

Technicals

Trend across all eight timeframes

15M Scalping ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 9.0

30M Scalping ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 11.9

1H Intraday ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 18.2

2H Intraday ▲ Bullish Solid trend ADX 36.7

4H Swing ▲ Bullish Solid trend ADX 43.6

8H Swing ▲ Bullish Solid trend ADX 39.5

12H Position ▲ Bullish Solid trend ADX 35.2

1D Position ▲ Bullish Trend forming ADX 26.3

One-hour through twelve-hour charts all trend up, with the two-hour trend especially strong and a bull flag forming there. In the latest hours, momentum measures on the half-hourly chart rolled over alongside a rising wedge pattern, which reads as a pullback within the uptrend rather than a reversal, provided support near 1.42352 holds.

By trading style

What this means for your trading style

Scalping 15m · 30m

▲ Bullish weak Data coverage good

PRO

79 %

historical hit rate · 43 comparable setups

Mixed on the shortest charts: the freshest half-hourly signals just turned down even though those timeframes still carry an upward lean, leaving no clear edge.

EMA Retreat Up SAR Flip Bullish SMA Break Up

Intraday 1h · 2h

▲ Bullish weak Data coverage good

PRO

66 %

historical hit rate · 32 comparable setups

Bullish on the one- and two-hour charts, backed by a bull flag and aligned moving averages, though short pullbacks against the trend remain possible.

Trendline Retreat Up EMA Retreat Up SMA Retreat Up

Swing 4h · 8h

▲ Bullish medium Data coverage good

PRO

65 %

historical hit rate · 26 comparable setups

The four- and eight-hour trends are firmly up, consistent with the pair holding above 1.40, with a break of key supports as the main invalidation.

Position 12h · 1d

▲ Bullish medium Data coverage good

PRO

—

too few comparable cases (0) for a reliable rate

The twelve-hour and daily charts lean bullish, matching the dollar's broad strength and the pair's rise above its 100-day average.

Signal history

Both worlds over time

One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.

30 days ago today

Technicals (trend of the day) News signal Size: news = reports that day, technicals = timeframes with data

Active signals

8 active signals for USD/CAD

Last 72 hours

Signal USD/CAD · 30M · BUY 100% VERY STRONG

▲ 100% ▼ 0%

UPDATED Scalping Premium With the trend Forecast 56%

EMA Retreat Up SAR Flip Bullish SMA Break Up

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-11 22:30 (22 hours ago) View Signal →

Signal USD/CAD · 30M · BUY 100% VERY STRONG

▲ 100% ▼ 0%

UPDATED Scalping Premium With the trend Forecast 56%

EMA Retreat Up

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-11 00:30 (1 day ago) View Signal →

Signal USD/CAD · 30M · SELL 100% VERY STRONG

▲ 0% ▼ 100%

UPDATED Scalping Premium Counter-trend Forecast 56%

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-10 16:30 (2 days ago) View Signal →

Signal USD/CAD · 30M · BUY 100% VERY STRONG

▲ 100% ▼ 0%

UPDATED Scalping Premium Forecast 56%

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-10 03:30 (2 days ago) View Signal →

Signal USD/CAD · 30M · BUY 98% VERY STRONG

▲ 98% ▼ 2%

UPDATED Scalping Premium With the trend Forecast 56%

Trendline Break Up Ascending Triangle EMA Retreat Up

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-10 14:30 (2 days ago) View Signal →

Signal USD/CAD · 2H · BUY 98% VERY STRONG

▲ 98% ▼ 2%

UPDATED Intraday Premium With the trend Forecast 55%

Bull Flag EMA Retreat Up SMA Retreat Up

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-09 22:00 (2 days ago) View Signal →

Signal USD/CAD · 30M · SELL 97% VERY STRONG

▲ 3% ▼ 97%

UPDATED Scalping Premium Counter-trend Forecast 56%

15M

30M

12H

2026-11-09 21:00 (2 days ago) View Signal →

Signal USD/CAD · 1H · BUY 96% VERY STRONG

▲ 96% ▼ 4%

UPDATED Intraday Premium Forecast 57%

Trendline Retreat Up EMA Retreat Up SMA Retreat Up Support Level Retreat Up

15M

30M

12H

2026-06-03 12:00 (162 days ago) View Signal →

News, 30 days

What is being reported about USD/CAD

News Bullish Impact 5/10

USD/CAD Holds Near 1.4245 as Diverging Rate Expectations Support Bullish Trend

The pair holds near a one-month high around 1.4245, with TD Securities citing diverging labour data and fading BoC December rate-hike odds that should…

November 12, 2026

News Neutral Impact 3/10

USD/CAD Retreats to 1.4243 as US Dollar Pulls Back From Four-Week Highs

The pair trades at 1.4243, down from the four-week high of 1.4265 hit earlier in the day as the US Dollar retreats, but it is still on track for a 0.8…

November 12, 2026

News Bullish Impact 4/10

USD/CAD Targets 1.4496 as Intraday Bullish Bias Persists

The technical outlook keeps intraday bias to the upside for a retest of the 1.4298 high, with a decisive break targeting the 100% projection at 1.4496…

November 12, 2026

News Bullish Impact 6/10

USD/CAD Rallies to 1.4260 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Strengthen

The pair has already climbed to around 1.4260 and holds above the 100-day SMA, with falling crude oil weighing on the oil-linked Loonie. Hotter-than-e…

November 12, 2026

News Bullish Impact 6/10

USDCAD Holds 1.4250 as Hawkish Fed Bets and Falling Oil Prices Weigh on CAD

After hotter-than-expected US CPI, markets price an ~87% chance of a December Fed rate hike and ~13% of a 50bp move, keeping the USD supported. TD Sec…

November 12, 2026

News Bullish Impact 7/10

USD/CAD Hits 1.4230 as Fed Tightening Bets Boost the Greenback

USD/CAD hit fresh four-week highs at 1.4230, rallying nearly 2% in less than a week, as hotter-than-expected October US CPI (0.4% m/m) and a strong NF…

November 11, 2026

General news on USD and CAD

These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on USD/CAD; in the news verdict they count half.

USD in general USD/CAD: Bullish Impact 6/10

Fed’s Daly Signals Further Rate Hikes as AI Fuels Inflation Pressures

San Francisco Fed President Daly said on November 12 that inflation pressure is up, not down, is bleeding into sticky services prices, and that her bi…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

USD in general USD/CAD: Bullish Impact 5/10

US Dollar Index Hits 18-Month Highs Above 103.00 on Fed Hike Bets

The dollar pushed past 103.00 to new 18-month highs on rising bets of another Fed rate hike in December, with investors even weighing a half-point mov…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

USD in general USD/CAD: Neutral Impact 1/10

Federal Reserve Sets 2027 FOMC Meeting Schedule Across 9 Dates

The Federal Reserve only published a revised tentative calendar of FOMC meeting dates for 2027, with no change to monetary policy, rates or balance-sh…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Neutral

USD in general USD/CAD: Bullish Impact 6/10

AUD/USD Slides to 0.6808 as Fed Tightening Bets Drive DXY to 103.19 High

The DXY climbed to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.19 as traders fully price a December Fed hike of 25 bps, with a small chance of 50 bps, and expect…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

USD in general USD/CAD: Bullish Impact 5/10

GBP/USD Slips to 1.3224 as Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Overshadows UK Growth

Hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed's Hammack and Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, who called inflation 'well above target' and 'not a one-off', lifted the Dol…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

USD in general USD/CAD: Bullish Impact 5/10

Fed's Goolsbee Warns of Overheating Economy as USD Rallies 0.59% Against AUD

Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is 'well above target' and that Tuesday's hot CPI 'wasn't a one-off', warning the economy is overheating. That reduces e…

November 12, 2026 · for USD: Bullish

Frequently asked questions about US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Why did the dollar against the loonie jump so sharply this week?

The surge came after October's US inflation report beat forecasts, pushing the odds of a December Fed rate hike close to certainty. Hawkish comments from Fed officials, including Waller's openness to a larger hike, lifted the dollar broadly, while falling crude oil removed a usual support for the Loonie. The pair reached fresh four-week highs above 1.42.

Could the recent rally run out of steam?

Momentum measures sit near overbought after the unusually steep climb, and the freshest short-term signals have turned down, so a pullback within the uptrend would not be surprising. A Bank of Canada hike being priced after Canadian inflation at 3.1% is another brake. Support near 1.42352 is the level to watch: holding it would reinforce the trend, breaking it could open a deeper correction.

Which upcoming releases matter for USD/CAD?

Three stand out. US jobless claims are due shortly, and US producer prices follow in about a day, where soft prints could trim Fed hike expectations. More important for this pair, Canadian CPI arrives in a few days: hotter-than-expected numbers would strengthen Bank of Canada hike bets and likely weigh on the dollar against the loonie. Oil inventory data could also move the Loonie.

Asset Snapshot

📝 Overview Generated automatically

USD/CAD has been the subject of 238 signals across 238 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bullish (51%).

Breakdown: 122 bullish, 87 bearish, 29 neutral.

Most-cited catalysts: Core inflation measures eased (2×), Broad-based US Dollar strength (2×), Decline in US Treasury yields (2×). Most-cited risk factors: Reversal in crude oil price trends (4×), Oil price rally supporting CAD (3×), Bank of Canada hawkishness could support CAD (3×).

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