Nasdaq 100 NDX · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m came in worse than expected for USD (39 h ago).
The Nasdaq 100 leans bearish: charts point lower on every timeframe and the news flow agrees, with Nvidia's CEO exit and a near-certain December rate hike weighing on tech. A clear fall in the last day interrupts a clear rise over the past week.
News situation · 87 items / 30 D
6 of 87 straight from the issuer or regulator
NDX chart by timeframe
Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.
No signal on this timeframe — price and EMA only.
Outlook for Nasdaq 100
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 87 news items.
What drives it
- Nvidia's CEO exit dragged futures lower and the selloff spread to chipmakers and data center operators.
- Hot CPI puts a December rate hike near 90% odds, a valuation drag on long-horizon tech earnings.
- The US 10-year yield pushing toward 5.05% adds to the pressure on tech valuations.
- The trend points down on every timeframe, with moderate strength on the 12-hour chart.
What argues against it
- CoreWeave beat and raised guidance, and the Nasdaq still climbed 1.6% in one session on AI optimism.
- An oversubscribed Anthropic IPO supports demand for the index's largest weights.
- Nvidia rebounded nearly 1% after hours, and a quarter-point hike remains the base case, not a larger move.
- Despite the latest drop, NDX is clearly higher than a week ago, so buyers have been stepping in.
What would change the picture
- Retail sales, the Philly Fed and jobless claims land in the coming days; strong prints could firm hike odds.
- A resolved or reversed Nvidia situation, or dip-buying spreading, would lift the heaviest drag on the index.
- A December move staying at a quarter point, or cooler inflation, would ease the valuation squeeze.
Coming up
- US: Retail sales · expected 0.7%, previous 0.9%
- US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change · expected -0.309M, previous 4.657M
- US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Jobless claims · expected 32.2, previous 20.9
Economic data for NDX
Full calendarRecently released
- November 13, 2026USDPPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.4%
- November 13, 2026USDCore PPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.8%
- November 12, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Actual 4.657MForecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865M
- November 12, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●
Coming up
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 2 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 2 days
- November 18, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Forecast -0.309MPrevious 4.657Min 3 days
- November 19, 2026USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index●●●Forecast 32.2Previous 20.9in 4 days
- November 19, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 4 days
- November 20, 2026USDMichigan Consumer Sentiment●●●Forecast 51.0Previous 51.0in 5 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on NAS100.
Trend across all eight timeframes
All eight timeframes read a bearish trend, from the half-hourly to the 12-hour view. Strength is very weak on the hourly and two-hour charts, weak on the 30-minute and 8-hour, and only the 12-hour reaches moderate. That is a persistent but unhurried downtrend: sellers hold the direction without strong momentum behind it.
What this means for your trading style
- The 30-minute trend is bearish but weak, so quick moves lower lack momentum and can reverse fast.
- Hourly and two-hour trends point down, though very weakly, so intraday pressure is one-directional but soft.
- The 4-hour and 8-hour trends are bearish and weak in strength, consistent with a slow grind lower over days.
- With the 12-hour trend at moderate strength and the daily side aligned, the multi-week bearish case is the strongest of the styles.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
What is being reported about NDX
In-depth analysis of Nasdaq 100
AI-generated · as of November 14, 2026
The tech-heavy index carries a bearish picture on both sides of the ledger. On the chart, the trend points down from the half-hourly view all the way to the 12-hour, though the pressure is weak on the shorter windows and only reaches moderate strength on the 12-hour — a persistent grind lower rather than a collapse.
The news points the same way, dominated by two forces: the leadership turmoil at Nvidia, whose after-hours slide knocked futures down and spread to chipmakers and data center operators, and a hotter-than-expected CPI that has markets pricing roughly a 90% chance of a December rate hike. A 10-year yield pushing toward 5.05% compounds the squeeze on companies whose earnings sit far in the future. Friday's PPI figures came in softer than expected for the dollar, yet NDX slipped further after the release. Against that stand real bright spots: CoreWeave's earnings beat with raised guidance, an oversubscribed Anthropic IPO, and a session in which the Nasdaq climbed 1.6% on AI optimism. Nvidia itself found dip buyers, and rivals gaining ground suggests rotation rather than wholesale tech selling. The rebound context also matters: the index has recovered only about a third of its fall from the October high near 31,350 to the early-November low near 26,600, so the recent strength was partial to begin with. The price record tells the same two-sided story — a clear rise over the past week, cut by a clear fall in the most recent 24 hours. With retail sales and several other US releases due in the coming days, there is ample scope for the market to reprice either way.
Frequently asked questions about Nasdaq 100
Why is Nvidia news moving the whole Nasdaq 100?
Nvidia is a heavyweight in the index, so its after-hours plunge on the CEO resignation pulled futures down and the worry spread to chipmakers and data center operators. Because the move stemmed from unconfirmed reports about one company's leadership, it could also fade if the story is resolved or buyers return in force.
What do the December rate-hike odds mean for the index?
After a hotter-than-expected CPI, markets price roughly a 90% chance of a Fed hike in December, and higher rates hit tech hardest because valuations lean on earnings far in the future. Waller's openness to a larger move adds risk, though a quarter-point hike remains the base case. The 10-year yield near 5.05% sharpens the effect.
What would turn the bearish picture around?
Three things stand out: the Nvidia story resolving or dip-buying spreading beyond it, upcoming US data coming in soft enough to cool the December hike odds, and the 12-hour trend — currently the strongest bearish reading — turning back up. Softer PPI hinted inflation pressure may be easing, yet the index still slid after the release.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
NDX has been the subject of 449 signals across 449 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (51%).
Breakdown: 158 bullish, 231 bearish, 60 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Rising Treasury yields (4×), Rotation out of growth stocks (2×), Goldman Sachs identifies a rare up-crash volatility pattern in tech stocks (1×). Most-cited risk factors: Valuation concerns in tech sector (2×), Regulatory risks for big tech (2×), Profit-taking in tech (2×).
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