Dow Jones DJI · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: USD Core CPI, Core CPI m/m came in better than expected for USD (24 h ago).
Heads-up: USD CPI, CPI m/m came in worse than expected for USD (24 h ago).
Heads-up: USD Core CPI n.s.a. m/m came in worse than the previous value for USD (24 h ago).
Heads-up: USD Initial Jobless Claims is due in 23 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
DJI is neutral: the recovery after the post-midterm selloff lost momentum when a hotter CPI print landed, and no timeframe shows a trend strong enough to side with either camp.
News situation · 40 items / 30 D
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Outlook for Dow Jones Industrial Average
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 40 news items.
What drives it
- Monday's 2.15% rally and follow-on futures gains show buyers still step in after heavy sessions.
- Solid jobless-claims and productivity data point to an economy that can absorb higher rates.
- Lower AI and chip exposure than the Nasdaq made the Dow comparatively resilient in the selloff.
- Falling crude oil after eased Iran tensions removes some inflation pressure from the outlook.
What argues against it
- A hotter-than-expected CPI revived rate-hike talk and trimmed Monday's rebound.
- Post-election doubts about the data-centre buildout drove the worst sessions since April 2025.
- The 50-day EMA near 52,150 capped the recovery; the index sits mid-range rather than trending.
- Elevated Treasury yields keep pulling money toward safer assets, weighing on equities.
What would change the picture
- A daily close back above the 50-day EMA near 52,150 would mark the selloff as a one-day event.
- PPI in the coming days and retail sales early next week could settle the December hike debate.
- A decisive break of the 50,500-53,800 range held since mid-September would set the next direction.
Coming up
- US: Jobless claims
- US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change · expected -2.489M, previous -0.865M
- US: Producer prices · expected 0.4%, previous 1.3%
Economic data for DJI
Full calendarRecently released
- November 10, 2026USDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%
- November 10, 2026USDCPI●●●Actual 337.476Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298
- November 10, 2026USDCPI m/m●●●Actual 0.4%Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Actual 0.2%Previous 0.4%
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI●●●Actual 339.900Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896
- November 10, 2026USDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%
Coming up
- TomorrowUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 23h
- TomorrowUSDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Forecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865Min 1 day
- November 13, 2026USDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 1 day
- November 13, 2026USDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 1 day
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 5 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 5 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on US30.
Trend across all eight timeframes
The trend picture is churn: the hourly and two-hour trends lean up but only weakly, while the four-hour through twelve-hour trends drift down with very weak strength. No timeframe shows enough conviction to call a trend.
What this means for your trading style
The text for this card no longer matches its rating, so it is hidden.
- The hourly and two-hour trends lean upward, giving intraday trading a bullish tilt, though the weakness of those trends keeps conviction low.
- On the four- and eight-hour windows the faint bearish drift and the rebound attempts cancel out, leaving swing trading neutral.
- With the twelve-hour trend barely bearish and the price in the middle of its range, there is no positional edge in either direction.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
What is being reported about DJI
In-depth analysis of Dow Jones Industrial Average
AI-generated · as of November 11, 2026
The past week ran in two acts. After the midterm result read as a vote against the data-centre buildout, the Dow Jones suffered its worst sessions since April 2025, wiping out the entire post-election rally in a single 3.10% drop that took the index back to pre-midterm levels.
Read full analysis
Buyers then returned: Monday brought a 2.15% rally and futures extended the gain into Tuesday, helped by falling crude oil after Washington called further military action against Iran unlikely. The recovery stalled when the October CPI came in hotter than expected and revived talk of another half-point hike; the index gave back about a sixth of Monday's rebound and now trades near 52,250, roughly the middle of the 50,500-53,800 range held since mid-September. Technically there is little conviction either way: the hourly and two-hour trends lean up but only weakly, while the four-hour to twelve-hour trends drift down on very weak readings, a picture of churn rather than trend. The price has still risen clearly over the past seven days, with a slight dip in the last 24 hours after the CPI. One structural note: with Goldman Sachs around $870 making up roughly a tenth of the index and Caterpillar's data-centre-tied power business the second-largest drag, election-related sentiment hits the Dow harder than its lower tech exposure would suggest. Attention now shifts to jobless claims shortly, PPI in the coming days and retail sales early next week, any of which could tip the rate-hike debate and with it the range.
Frequently asked questions about Dow Jones Industrial Average
Why did the Dow fall so sharply after the midterms?
Voters backed restrictions on data-centre construction in local measures across the country, and the Democratic wins rattled the AI trade. Because the Dow is price-weighted, Goldman Sachs at roughly $870 makes up about a tenth of the index, and Caterpillar's data-centre-tied power business became the second-largest drag. That is how one session ranked as the index's worst since April 2025.
What does the hotter CPI report change?
The October CPI came in above expectations, reviving rate-hike talk and erasing about a sixth of Monday's rebound. The damage has stayed contained: the index remains inside its established range, and recent jobless-claims and productivity figures show the economy is still firm. PPI and retail sales in the coming days will show whether inflation pressure is broadening.
What would break the index out of its range?
A daily close back above the 50-day EMA near 52,150 would suggest the post-election selloff was a one-off rather than the start of a trend. On the downside, the 50,500 floor of the range and the 200-day EMA at 50,712.68 mark where buyers previously stepped in. Softer PPI or retail sales could also ease rate-hike expectations and lift the ceiling on risk appetite.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
DJI has been the subject of 269 signals across 269 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (50%).
Breakdown: 82 bullish, 135 bearish, 52 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Positive market sentiment during European trading hours (4×), Index committee decision to replace Verizon with Alphabet (1×), Alphabet added to Dow, becoming second-biggest weight (1×). Most-cited risk factors: Potential for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (3×), Potential for sentiment reversal during US market open (2×), The change is purely structural and may not alter the Dow's overall trajectory if other components dominate. (1×).
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