Bullish
🤖 75%
Aluminum Set for Worst Month Since 2008 Despite Daily Rally on Hormuz, Fed
Aluminum gained 0.8% to $2,200/t on June 30 as Hormuz supply risk and Fed rate-cut bets provided a momentary lift, but the metal remained on track for its worst monthly loss since 2008, down 12% in June, weighed by rising global output.
Catalysts
- ▲ Hormuz supply disruption fears
- ▲ Dovish Federal Reserve outlook
Risk Factors
- ▼ Rising Chinese production overshadows short-term gains
- ▼ Month-end profit-taking after deep June losses
▼ Show FAQ (2) ▲ Hide FAQ
Why is aluminum set for its worst month since 2008?
Aluminum has plunged 12% in June due to a ramp-up in global smelter production, particularly in China, flooding the market with excess supply. The daily rise on Hormuz and Fed hopes merely trimmed some losses.
Can aluminum extend today's gains?
Short-term gains are possible if Hormuz tensions escalate or the Fed turns explicitly dovish, but the heavy supply overhang makes sustained upside unlikely without production cuts.