USD/CAD – 30M – KAUF
KAUF 5× AKTUALISIERT CLOSED
vor 47 Tagen
⚠ Opened against the trend in
5 of 8 timeframes.
Target hit 10.8 %
vs 17.9 % average ·
stopped out 12.7 %
vs 9.2 %
(Forex, 166 closed runs).
Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.
Lädt…
Signal-Verlauf
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads
Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.
Ausgelöste Signale
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTC, updated 5× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
| Ausgelöste Signale | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Double Topstate only | chart_pattern | 3.07 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Downstate only | trendline | 1.79 |
| ▲ | Support Level Retreat Upcontinuation | sr | 1.79 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (24%)continuation | fibonacci | 1.75 |
| ▼ | ADX Trend Weak | indicator | 1.60 |
| ▲ | KAMA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.48 |
| ▲ | Double Top Retreat Upcontinuation | chart_pattern | 1.46 |
| ▲ | Trendline Retreat Upcontinuation | trendline | 1.45 |
| ▲ | SMA 50 Retreat Up | indicator | 1.42 |
| ▼ | DI CROSS Cross Down | indicator | 1.31 |
| ▼ | APO Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.30 |
| ▲ | EMA 50 Retreat Up | indicator | 1.26 |
| ▲ | CMO Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.19 |
| ▲ | RSI Midline Cross Up | indicator | 1.19 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.18 |
| ▼ | DM CROSS Cross Down | indicator | 1.16 |
| ▲ | Spinning Top Bullish | candlestick | 0.77 |
Trend-Kontext
15MDOWNSeitwärts / richtungslos
30MDOWNSeitwärts / richtungslos
1HUPSeitwärts / richtungslos
2HUPSeitwärts / richtungslos
4HUPSeitwärts / richtungslos
8HDOWNTrend entsteht
12HDOWNTrend entsteht
1DDOWNSeitwärts / richtungslos
Analyse
🎯 Die wichtigsten Erkenntnisse
- Bullish signals on the 30-minute chart suggest a potential bounce, but the higher timeframe trend is bearish, so this may be counter-trend.
- Key resistance at 1.40533 and support at 1.40269 are the levels to watch; a break above resistance confirms the bullish move, while a break below support invalidates it.
- The mixed trend across timeframes (bearish short-term, bullish mid-term, bearish long-term) indicates choppy conditions and limited upside potential.
- The signal strength is moderate, so traders should wait for confirmation before entering.
The USD/CAD 30-minute chart has fired a cluster of bullish signals, including a Trendline Break Down followed by a Trendline Retreat Up, a Double Top pattern with a Double Top Retreat Up, and multiple zero-cross indicators (APO, BOP, CMO) turning upward. These signals suggest that the recent bearish momentum is stalling and that buyers are stepping in, potentially setting up a retracement or reversal to the upside. However, the overall trend context is mixed: the 15-minute and 30-minute timeframes remain bearish and choppy, while the 1-hour through 4-hour timeframes are bullish but also choppy. The higher timeframes (8-hour, 12-hour, daily) are bearish, with the 8-hour and 12-hour showing trend formation. This divergence indicates that the bullish signals are counter-trend against the higher timeframes, so the upside may be limited.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 1.40533 and support at 1.40269. A break above resistance could confirm the bullish reversal, while a loss of support would invalidate the signal and likely resume the broader downtrend. The moderate strength and the choppy conditions across most timeframes suggest that traders should be cautious and wait for confirmation, such as a clear break above resistance or a sustained move higher on higher timeframes.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 1.40533 and support at 1.40269. A break above resistance could confirm the bullish reversal, while a loss of support would invalidate the signal and likely resume the broader downtrend. The moderate strength and the choppy conditions across most timeframes suggest that traders should be cautious and wait for confirmation, such as a clear break above resistance or a sustained move higher on higher timeframes.
Auslöser
- ▲ Multiple bullish signals fired together (Trendline Retreat Up, Double Top Retreat Up, and zero-cross up indicators) suggest a confluence of buying pressure.
- ▲ The 1-hour through 4-hour timeframes are bullish, providing some alignment with the 30-minute signal.
- ▲ The nearest support at 1.40269 has held so far, offering a potential base for the upside move.
- ▲ The ADX trend is weak, which can allow for reversals, and the zero-cross up signals indicate momentum is shifting.
Risikofaktoren
- ▼ The higher timeframes (8-hour, 12-hour, daily) are bearish, and the 8-hour and 12-hour show trend formation, which could overpower the 30-minute bullish signal.
- ▼ The 15-minute and 30-minute timeframes are still bearish and choppy, suggesting that the bullish signals may be premature or fade quickly.
- ▼ If price breaks below the nearest support at 1.40269, the signal is invalidated and a continuation of the downtrend is likely.
- ▼ The choppy conditions across most timeframes (trend score 1/5) indicate a lack of clear direction, which can lead to false breakouts.
Symbol
USD/CAD
Zeitrahmen
30M
Richtung
KAUF
Conviction
4%
Strength
WEAK
Datum
2026-08-04 06:30
cat_ Forex
Forex
Unterstützung & Widerstand
| Niveau | Preis | Gebildet |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1.40533 | 2026-08-03 |
| R2 | 1.40584 | 2026-07-31 |
| R3 | 1.40677 | 2026-07-30 |
| S1 | 1.40269 | 2026-08-03 |
| S2 | 1.40036 | 2026-08-03 |
| S3 | 1.40033 | 2026-07-31 |