Why did gold fall despite increased geopolitical risk?
The market likely interpreted the US strikes as a limited action with low risk of escalation, while a strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields diminished the appeal of zero-yield gold. The three-day decline also suggests technical selling pressure.
What is the outlook for gold in the short term?
If geopolitical tensions remain contained and the dollar stays firm, gold could extend losses. However, any unexpected widening of the conflict or a dovish pivot from the Fed could swiftly reverse the trend.
How does this compare to historical safe-haven reactions?
Typically, military strikes in the Middle East boost gold, but when markets view the action as symbolic or non-escalatory, the safe-haven bid fades. Today's reaction aligns with patterns seen after limited US strikes on Syria in 2017-2018.