₿ Crypto 🌍 United States

US Users Bypass Polymarket Geoblock to Dominate Political Betting, Data Shows

US bettors are bypassing Polymarket's geoblock via VPNs to dominate political prediction markets, per Allium data, underscoring growing crypto adoption and regulatory circumvention risks.

📅 July 3, 2026 🕐 1 min read 📰 Cointelegraph

2 assets impacted (Crypto). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: BTC/USD ↑ 6/10 (65% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

BTC/USD

Bullish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 Global ✨ Inferred

Rising US user activity on Polymarket suggests expanding crypto adoption for real-world betting, which could boost demand for Bitcoin as the primary gateway asset for crypto participation.

Catalysts

▲ US users bypassing Polymarket geoblock via VPNs
▲ Growing political betting activity on crypto platforms

Risk Factors

▼ CFTC crackdown on offshore prediction platforms
▼ VPN usage leading to negative regulatory attention for crypto

▼ Show FAQ (2) ▲ Hide FAQ

How could increased US activity on Polymarket impact Bitcoin?

Greater adoption of crypto prediction markets like Polymarket could boost overall cryptocurrency demand, as users need to acquire and hold crypto to participate, potentially lifting Bitcoin’s price.

What regulatory risks could derail this trend?

If the CFTC or other US agencies decide to crack down on offshore prediction platforms and their US users, it could dampen enthusiasm and lead to a sell-off in associated crypto assets.

ETH/USD

Bullish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 Global ✨ Inferred

Polymarket runs on Polygon, an Ethereum sidechain, and bets are settled in USDC (ERC-20). More activity implies greater Ethereum network usage, raising demand for ETH as gas and potentially as a valuation anchor.

Catalysts

▲ Polymarket's growth driving Ethereum transaction activity
▲ Increased USDC usage on Polygon stemming from political bets

Risk Factors

▼ Regulatory actions targeting Ethereum-based prediction markets
▼ Migration of Polymarket to a non-Ethereum chain to avoid US scrutiny

▼ Show FAQ (2) ▲ Hide FAQ

Why might ETH benefit from Polymarket usage?

Polymarket runs on Polygon, which is an Ethereum sidechain, and bets are denominated in USDC (ERC-20). More activity means more Ethereum network transactions and fees, potentially increasing demand for ETH.

Could regulatory actions specifically target Ethereum-based platforms?

Yes, regulators could view Ethereum-based prediction markets as facilitating unregistered securities or gambling, creating headwinds for ETH if enforcement actions escalate.

🎯 Key Takeaways

US bettors bypass Polymarket's geoblock primarily via VPNs, dominating political markets.
The circumvention raises questions about the effectiveness of geo-restrictions on decentralized platforms.
Allium's on-chain data confirms sustained US engagement despite the platform's compliance measures.
The trend could attract attention from US regulators, increasing compliance risks for offshore crypto platforms.
Polymarket's political betting volume rivals traditional markets in some events, signaling a shift in information aggregation.

📝 Executive Summary

New data from Allium suggest that US users are bypassing geoblocks to bet on markets offered on Polymarket’s global platform.

❓ FAQ

How are US users accessing Polymarket despite the geoblock?

According to Allium's data, US users are primarily using VPNs to mask their location and access the global platform, where political betting markets are publicly visible.

Why did Polymarket restrict US users from political markets?

Polymarket implemented the geoblock in 2021 as part of a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which views certain event-based contracts as potentially illegal gambling or unregistered derivatives.

What are the implications of the Allium report?

The report suggests that geoblocks are relatively easy to circumvent on decentralized platforms, underscoring the challenges regulators face in enforcing jurisdictional restrictions in the crypto space.

US Users Bypass Polymarket Geoblock to Dominate Political Betting, Data Shows

📊 Affected Assets (2)

🎯 Key Takeaways

📝 Executive Summary

❓ FAQ

📰 Related Articles

🏷️ Tags

📰 Source