📝 Executive Summary
K33 said Bitcoin has historically bottomed within weeks of more than half of its circulating supply being held at a loss, with strong one-year returns following in most previous cycles.
Bullish
🤖 75%
Bitcoin's on-chain data reveals that more than 50% of its supply is underwater, which K33 Research identifies as a reliable bottom signal. In prior cycles, such readings preceded sharp recoveries, and the current metric suggests that selling pressure may be exhausted and accumulation is likely underway.
Catalysts
- ▲ K33 Research report highlighting that >50% of BTC supply is at a loss, a historically reliable bottom signal
- ▲ Previous cycles showing that such levels precede strong one-year returns
Risk Factors
- ▼ Pattern may not repeat; macroeconomic or regulatory headwinds could delay a bottom
- ▼ Requires price confirmation; on-chain signals can produce false positives
▼ Show FAQ (3) ▲ Hide FAQ
What does K33's analysis suggest for Bitcoin's price in the short term?
K33 notes that Bitcoin has historically bottomed within weeks of the supply-in-loss metric crossing 50%, implying that a price floor may form soon if the pattern holds.
Should investors use this metric alone to time entries?
No single metric is infallible. While the supply-in-loss indicator has a strong track record, investors should consider additional on-chain and technical signals to confirm a trend reversal before committing capital.
Has Bitcoin always rallied after this condition was met?
Most previous cycles saw strong one-year returns following the signal, though the exact timing and magnitude varied. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.