Brent crude trades below $100 despite Strait of Hormuz tensions, as Gulf producers pivot to alternative routes and Chinese demand softens, prompting analysts to adjust long-term price forecasts.
WTI prices are being influenced by the same geopolitical tensions as Brent, leading Goldman Sachs to raise its price forecasts by $5 a barrel for 2026 and 2027. However, the asset faces downward pressure from rising non-OPEC production and persistent demand destruction in the transportation sector.
Goldman Sachs has raised its WTI forecast to $80 per barrel for December 2026 and $75 per barrel for 2027.
Global oil markets remain volatile as Middle East supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict clash with significant demand destruction in China. While physical markets signal tight supply, alternative export routes and rising non-OPEC production are currently capping price gains below the $100 threshold.
Prices are capped by significant demand destruction in China, increased production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. and Guyana, and the ability of Gulf producers to utilize alternative export routes.