Goldman Sachs analysts see a balanced Brent crude market, noting that while low inventories and geopolitical risks create upside potential, price-sensitive Chinese demand and recovering production capacity should keep prices within a moderate range through 2027.
Goldman Sachs sees balanced Brent outlook with upside risks from low inventories and supply threats, but base case remains moderate.
Goldman Sachs maintains a balanced outlook for Brent crude, citing low global inventories and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. While the bank's base case assumes moderate production recovery by 2027, it warns that geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $120 per barrel.
The primary driver for the upside scenario is a significant disruption in Middle East oil production, specifically if output remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels due to intensified shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.