Despite a valuation reset in the AI-power sector, Vistra maintains a 47% upside gap to consensus targets, supported by a robust contract book and clean operational execution compared to peers like NRG and Talen.
Analyst sees potential double on hyperscaler deals not yet in estimates.
Trading below consensus with bullish ratings, but smaller upside gap than Vistra.
Similar upside gap to Vistra, with Cornerstone Acquisition still to prove.
Widest analyst gap but integration struggles make it riskier.
Vistra (VST) currently trades at $148.34, significantly below the Wall Street consensus target of $217.42. Analysts point to untapped revenue from hyperscaler deals with Meta and AWS, alongside the Cogentrix acquisition, as catalysts that could drive substantial EBITDA growth by 2027.
The gap is largely attributed to the market not yet pricing in the full EBITDA contribution from upcoming hyperscaler power deals and the Cogentrix acquisition, which are expected to materialize in 2027.