Bitcoin faces a pivotal test at $75,900, caught between a major supply wall and potential Fed-driven volatility, with traders eyeing a recovery to $85,000 despite recent ETF outflows.
Bitcoin trades below its 50-week moving average and a long-term holder supply wall, with a Fed rate hike priced in, but Polymarket odds favor a recovery to the mid-$80,000s.
Strategy resumed buying Bitcoin around $80,300, indicating continued corporate accumulation of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin is trading at $75,900, roughly 6.4% below its critical 50-week moving average, as investors weigh a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16. While long-term holders have offloaded significant supply, Polymarket data suggests a 67% chance of a recovery toward $85,000 by year-end, despite current downward pressure.
The $81,000 level represents the 50-week moving average, which has historically separated bull and bear phases in every Bitcoin cycle.
Institutional activity remains mixed; while some long-term holders have sold into the $77,000-$80,000 range, firms like Strategy have resumed buying near $80,300.