ECB official Gabriel Makhlouf warns that persistent energy shocks keep inflation risks elevated, leaving all options open for the October policy meeting.
Oil is explicitly noted as well above $100 per barrel due to a persistent energy shock from geopolitical conflicts, keeping inflation risks elevated.
European gas prices are cited as the highest since around 2022, reinforcing the ongoing energy shock and upward pressure on inflation.
ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf stated that every upcoming meeting remains 'live' as the central bank navigates persistent energy shocks. With oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel and European gas costs at multi-year highs, the ECB maintains a data-dependent approach to reach its 2% inflation target without a predetermined rate path.
Gabriel Makhlouf indicated that every meeting is 'live' and data-dependent, meaning a rate hike cannot be ruled out nor ruled in until the council reviews the latest evidence.