Preliminary loading schedules indicate a 100,000 to 200,000 bpd drop in Russian crude shipments as refineries pivot toward diesel output, creating a bullish signal for Brent crude prices.
UKOIL is expected to face upward price pressure as Russian crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports are projected to decline by 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day in November. This reduction in supply, which includes Kazakh crude transported via Russian pipelines, is driven by domestic refiners prioritizing diesel production following a recent bilateral agreement.
Exports are declining because Russian refiners are increasing domestic diesel production to comply with a new agreement between Moscow and Washington.
Gasoil prices face downward pressure as Russian refineries ramp up processing and diesel production in response to the October 9 agreement. The shift in refinery output from crude exports to refined products is expected to increase the global supply of diesel and gasoil, potentially softening market prices.
The agreement has incentivized Russian refineries to increase processing, leading to higher diesel production which adds to the global refined product supply.
Russian crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports are projected to decline by up to 200,000 barrels per day in November. The reduction stems from domestic refiners prioritizing diesel production following a recent bilateral agreement, tightening global crude supply while potentially increasing refined product availability.
Exports are falling because Russian refineries are increasing processing rates to boost diesel production, following a recent agreement that incentivizes higher refined product output.