TotalEnergies shifts its peak oil demand forecast to 2035-2040, signaling a long-term bearish outlook for crude as the company anticipates a faster energy transition driven by EV growth.
TotalEnergies has revised its long-term strategic outlook, pulling forward its peak oil demand forecast to the 2035-2040 window. This adjustment reflects management's acknowledgment of a changing energy landscape, where geopolitical instability like the Iran war and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles could compress the company's core growth timeline.
TotalEnergies suggests that the ongoing conflict could act as a catalyst to accelerate the global energy transition.
TotalEnergies' updated annual energy outlook indicates that global oil demand will plateau throughout the 2030s before entering a period of slow decline. This shift in long-term demand projections suggests a more bearish outlook for crude oil prices as the market anticipates a peak occurring between 2035 and 2040.
The company now projects oil demand to peak between 2035 and 2040.
TotalEnergies has revised its long-term energy outlook, projecting that global oil demand will plateau in the 2030s before entering a decline. The company cited accelerating electric vehicle adoption and geopolitical instability as primary drivers for this shift, marking a significant departure from its previous 2040 peak forecast.
The revision is driven by the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles and the potential for geopolitical conflicts, such as the Iran war, to hasten the global energy transition.