Analyst report 🏭 Commodities 🌍 GLOBAL

Brent Crude Oil Targets $90-$100 Range Amid Middle East Geopolitical Risks

TD Securities forecasts Brent crude oil will maintain a $90-$100 per barrel range due to regional conflicts, with long-term fair value expected to settle between $80 and $90 by 2028.

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1 assets impacted (Commodities). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: UKOIL ↑ 7/10 (60% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (1)

UKOIL
Bullish 🤖 60%
🗓️ Long-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Brent crude is projected to maintain a higher-for-longer price regime driven by ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran. TD Securities anticipates that once these conflicts subside, the fair value will stabilize in the $90-100/bbl range before gradually narrowing to $80-90/bbl by the second half of 2027 and 2028.

Catalysts
  • ▲ Ongoing conflict involving Iran
  • ▲ Broader geopolitical instability in the Middle East
Risk Factors
  • ▼ Resolution of Middle East conflicts leading to a downward adjustment in fair value
  • ▼ Long-term price compression toward the $80-90/bbl range by 2027-2028
▼ Show FAQ (2) ▲ Hide FAQ
What is the expected fair value range for Brent crude post-conflict?

TD Securities estimates a fair value range of $90-100/bbl once Middle East conflicts conclude.

How will Brent prices change by 2027-2028?

The fair value is expected to narrow to a range of $80-90/bbl by the second half of 2027 through 2028.

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • Brent crude oil is expected to enter a higher-for-longer price regime due to Middle East geopolitical tensions.
  • Fair value estimates for Brent are projected to shift from $90-$100 per barrel to $80-$90 by H2 2027-2028.

📝 Executive Summary

TD Securities analyst Ryan McKay projects Brent crude oil will sustain a higher-for-longer price regime driven by ongoing Middle East instability. The firm estimates fair value will hold between $90 and $100 per barrel before eventually narrowing to a range of $80 to $90 by the second half of 2027.

❓ FAQ

What is the long-term price outlook for Brent crude oil?

TD Securities expects Brent to trade between $90 and $100 per barrel in the near term, with a long-term adjustment to $80-$90 per barrel by late 2027.