ING analysts project a prolonged pause for the National Bank of Poland, with the reference rate holding at 3.75% through 2026 as inflation pressures remain under control.
The NBP is expected to hold its reference rate at 3.75% on 4 November and keep it unchanged through end-2026, according to ING. A steady policy path with contained core inflation removes any immediate rate differential catalyst, leaving the zloty broadly stable. The risk is a shift toward earlier easing.
The NBP is expected to keep its reference rate at 3.75% on 4 November.
ING expects rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026.
With the policy rate expected unchanged at 3.75% until end-2026, Polish government bond yields are likely to remain anchored. Contained inflation pressures reduce the chance of a hawkish surprise, supporting stable yields. The risk is if the market prices earlier easing.
ING economists forecast that the National Bank of Poland will maintain its reference rate at 3.75% during the November 4 meeting. The central bank is expected to keep this policy stance unchanged through the end of 2026, citing contained core inflation and limited wage-driven pressures.
The NBP is expected to keep its reference rate at 3.75% on 4 November.
ING expects rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026.