Norges Bank holds rates steady at 4.50% while keeping the door open for a December hike, though Commerzbank warns that Middle East-driven oil and gas price swings remain the primary catalyst for NOK volatility.
Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.50% on 5 November, exactly as expected, and kept its 'high for longer' stance with the door open to another hike possibly in December, when new forecasts arrive. Since there were no surprises, Commerzbank sees the decision as broadly neutral for the krone, with inflation still well above target. Oil and gas price swings from Middle East risks, not monetary policy, are flagged as the main source of NOK volatility in the coming weeks.
The bank kept its policy rate at 4.50%, exactly what markets expected, and its 'high for longer' message was unchanged, so there was no surprise to reprice. Commerzbank calls the decision broadly neutral for the krone.
Incoming inflation and growth data ahead of the December meeting with new forecasts, but above all oil and gas prices, since Middle East conflict risks are seen as the biggest source of krone volatility in the coming weeks.
Norges Bank maintained its policy rate at 4.50% in a widely expected decision, signaling a potential hike in December. Commerzbank analysts view the move as neutral for the Norwegian krone, noting that monetary policy is currently secondary to external energy market volatility.
The bank kept its policy rate at 4.50%, exactly what markets expected, and its 'high for longer' message was unchanged, so there was no surprise to reprice. Commerzbank calls the decision broadly neutral for the krone.
Incoming inflation and growth data ahead of the December meeting with new forecasts, but above all oil and gas prices, since Middle East conflict risks are seen as the biggest source of krone volatility in the coming weeks.